What are the IEA's latest revised forecasts for Russia's oil production in 2026 and 2027, and by how much were they reduced?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its forecast for Russia's crude oil production by 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.7 million bpd for 2026, and by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd for 2027. These downward adjustments reflect the ongoing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, which have contributed to a sustained decline in output despite Russia being the world's third-largest oil producer.

How has Russia's oil production changed recently according to the IEA, and what is its current level compared to recent peaks and year-ago levels?

According to the IEA, Russia's oil production declined by 200,000 bpd from July to 8.36 million bpd in the most recent month reported; this is 940,000 bpd lower than the January 2026 peak of 9.3 million bpd and 695,000 bpd below year-ago levels. Additionally, Russia ceased publishing official oil output data in April 2023 — over a year after the start of the conflict in Ukraine — making external estimates like those from the IEA and OPEC increasingly critical for tracking actual production trends.

IEA further cuts Russian oil output forecasts on Ukrainian attacks

Sep 11, 2026

The IEA reduced Russia's crude oil production forecast by up to 235,000 barrels per day in 2027 following Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. Output has fallen sharply since early 2026, nearing a 17-year low according to recent data.

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