What is the scale of the oil supply loss caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and how is it affecting global inventories?

According to the IEA report, the Strait of Hormuz disruption has led to cumulative oil supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity forced offline — described as an 'unprecedented supply shock'. As a result, global observable oil inventories (including commercial stocks, government strategic reserves, and seaborne crude) declined by 250 million barrels in March and April alone, equivalent to a daily drawdown of 4 million barrels — the fastest pace on record. This rapid depletion is directly tied to efforts by consuming countries to release stored oil into the market to offset the supply shortfall.

How does the IEA project global oil demand will change in 2024 due to the supply crisis and related economic factors?

The IEA forecasts that global oil demand in Q2 2024 will fall by 2.45 million bpd year-on-year, and for the full year, demand will decline by 420,000 bpd year-on-year to an average of 104 million bpd — 1.3 million bpd lower than pre-conflict forecasts. This downward revision stems from multiple converging pressures: soaring prices, deteriorating economic conditions, intensified fuel-saving measures, and severely constrained feedstock supply to the petrochemical sector; while reduced air travel has partially eased jet fuel price pressure, earlier disruptions had driven jet fuel prices up nearly threefold.

IEA: Global Oil Inventories Depleting at Record Pace

May 14, 2026

The International Energy Agency reports global oil inventories are depleting at a record pace due to supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, severely impacting the petrochemical sector and driving price volatility ahead of summer demand peaks.

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