Why did the IEA lower its 2026 global oil demand forecast, and by how much compared to its previous report?

The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its May report, resulting in a projected 2026 demand that is 1.1 million bpd lower year-on-year. This downward revision was primarily driven by a sharp 5 million bpd year-on-year decline in demand during the second quarter, attributed to high oil prices and product supply disruptions.

What does the IEA report say about global oil supply trends for 2026 and 2027, and how does current production compare to pre-conflict levels?

The IEA forecasts global oil supply will fall by 3.9 million bpd to 102.4 million bpd in 2026, with May 2024 production already down to 94.5 million bpd — 13.6 million bpd below pre-conflict levels. In 2027, supply is expected to rebound by 8 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd.

IEA Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast

Jun 18, 2026

The IEA cut its 2026 global oil demand outlook by 1.1 million barrels per day due to high prices and supply disruptions, noting OECD stockpiles fell to 1990 lows amidst Middle East tensions.

ccin

2026-01-21

Oil demand set to rise in 2026, supply and stocks continue to climb – IEA

2026-01-22

IEA Raises 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

2026-03-12

Largest-Ever Oil Reserve Release Fails to Fill Gap, International Oil Prices Continue to Rise

2026-03-17

IEA: "If Necessary" Will Further Release Oil Reserves

2026-03-24

IEA Member Countries to Release Over 400 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves