The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, with diesel to be massively deployed in the first 20 days; U.S. crude oil prices temporarily fell more than 5%.

Amid tight supply in the global energy market and persistently high diesel prices, the Group of Seven (G7) has finally rolled out a large-scale strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release measure. On Friday, October 2, the French presidential office released a G7 leaders’ statement declaring that the G7 will coordinate—through the International Energy Agency (IEA)—the release of 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, to begin "immediately" and continue over four months. During this period, G7 members and partner countries will prioritize large-scale diesel reserve releases within the first 20 days. The G7 also pledged to avoid imposing energy or energy product export restrictions among member states and called on other oil-producing countries not to adopt export bans that could further exacerbate market tensions. Following the announcement of the G7 decision, international crude oil futures posted notably wider losses during the early U.S. equity market session on Friday. At one point, U.S. WTI crude fell below USD 88.10 per barrel—down nearly 5.2% on the day—while Brent crude dipped below USD 98.50 per barrel, down nearly 3.8% intraday. Earlier on Friday, crude prices had already declined amid market anticipation of further G7 SPR releases. Front-loaded diesel releases in the first 20 days; G7 members commit to avoiding energy export restrictions According to the G7 leaders’ statement released by the French presidency, the core of this initiative is the IEA-coordinated release of a total of 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, scheduled to launch immediately and conclude within four months. Notably, the G7 placed special emphasis on diesel supply. The G7 leaders’ statement specified that G7 members and partners would conduct a "large-scale, front-loaded" release of diesel reserves within the initial 20 days. Meanwhile, the G7 pledged to continue discussions—via the IEA—in the coming days on whether additional diesel reserve releases may be necessary. The G7 also instructed the IEA to monitor the impact of these measures on energy security and market stability, and to submit a follow-up report within 20 days—including concrete recommendations for replenishing strategic reserves. French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters after the meeting that the G7 aims to lower fuel prices through this action. Another key component of this measure is the avoidance of export restrictions. The G7 reaffirmed its commitment to refrain from imposing energy or energy product export restrictions among member states, and urged other oil-producing countries to avoid embargoes that might further intensify market strain. This distinguishes the current G7 action from simple crude oil inventory releases: today’s market stress stems not only from crude oil shortages but also—particularly—from tight supplies of refined products such as diesel. Market priced in the “reserve release” expectation ahead of the official announcement In fact, international oil prices had already weakened earlier on Friday amid reports that the G7 might release additional strategic reserves. Reuters reported that, earlier that day, EU countries discussed a proposal put forward by France: European nations would release 50 million barrels of diesel, while IEA member countries would release another 50 million barrels of crude oil. These discussions occurred prior to the G7 leaders’ video conference. This proposal emerged against the backdrop of sustained U.S. pressure on Europe to release more emergency fuel reserves to ease soaring fuel prices. Earlier, Reuters reported that the U.S. government had pressured France and Germany to release emergency diesel inventories—and even considered restricting U.S. diesel exports as an additional lever of pressure.

Two G7 meetings failed to resolve the persistent tension in the international oil market.

Kimani pointed out that although the G7 announced the release of 100 million barrels of oil, the oil market’s reaction was virtually negligible. Standard Chartered Bank noted that this move largely accelerates the G7’s previously announced commitment to release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves. While the accelerated diesel release may alleviate short-term pressures, it cannot address the fundamental issue of fuel shortages. Moreover, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift the ban on U.S. diesel exports has removed a major threat to European supply. Although there are signs of some improvement, energy deliveries from the Middle East remain constrained: Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased slightly but remain far below pre-war levels—force majeure conditions persist. Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, G7 leaders announced on Friday that they would coordinate—through the IEA—the release of 100 million barrels of emergency petroleum reserves, beginning immediately and concluding over four months. Prior to this, Trump had threatened to ban U.S. diesel exports in an effort to curb record-high domestic fuel prices ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. Diesel prices have recently surged to historic highs due to supply constraints. Hours after European leaders agreed to release reserves, Trump promptly rescinded the proposed export ban. Interestingly, energy markets reacted relatively indifferently to the news—the downward momentum in oil prices appeared to ease: at 1:55 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, Brent crude for November delivery rose 0.09% to USD 100.15 per barrel, following a near-2% decline the previous day; meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October delivery rose 0.10% to USD 89.53 per barrel. Standard Chartered Bank’s commodity analysts now observe that oil markets are displaying apathy toward these developments, because this is not a new emergency measure—but rather an acceleration of the G7’s March pledge (made following the outbreak of war with Iran) to “fully implement immediately” the release of 400 million barrels of crude. According to an IEA report, as of October 2, approximately 325 million barrels had already been released from the announced 400-million-barrel reserve drawdown—leaving roughly 75 million barrels still to be released. Standard Chartered noted that it remains unclear how this figure aligns with the G7’s newly stated target of 100 million barrels. Furthermore, although the G7 has directed that diesel releases be “prioritized and substantial” within the first 20 days, the specific allocation ratio between crude oil and diesel has yet to be disclosed. Member countries are expected to discuss—via upcoming IEA meetings in the coming days—whether further diesel releases are needed, while the IEA has been tasked with reporting on the effectiveness of these measures within 20 days. U.S. fuel prices show little sign of easing: on Tuesday, the national average gasoline price rose to USD 4.3685 per gallon—up from USD 4.3653 per gallon on Monday and USD 4.1473 per gallon one month earlier—while diesel stood at USD 6.3151 per gallon, above USD 5.8970 per gallon one month ago. European low-sulfur diesel prices were broadly flat but up 125% year-to-date, and the European diesel crack spread remains elevated. As Standard Chartered observed, markets have known since March that up to 400 million barrels of oil would be made available.

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