According to the IEA, by how much has the global oil supply forecast for this year been downgraded, and what is the resulting supply gap?

The IEA has downgraded its global oil supply forecast for this year by 430 million barrels per day (bpd), representing a 4% decline, bringing the total projected supply to 102.02 million bpd — the lowest level ever forecast by the agency. As a result, the global oil supply gap is now expected to reach approximately 1.27 million bpd, up from the 860,000 bpd gap predicted in its July report.

What are the key geopolitical and logistical factors cited by the IEA as causing the severe global oil supply shortfall?

The IEA attributes the severe supply shortfall to multiple concurrent disruptions: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. sanctions blocking Iranian crude exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reduced CPC mixed crude exports from Kazakhstan; it also notes that Middle East crude shipments fell from 20 million bpd in early July to 12 million bpd by late July, with regional output dropping 8.3 million bpd below pre-conflict levels.

IEA Significantly Downgrades Global Oil Supply Forecast for This Year

Aug 17, 2026

The IEA slashed its global oil supply forecast by 4% due to Middle East conflicts, widening the deficit to 1.27 million barrels per day. This marks the lowest supply outlook as regional tensions disrupt trade flows.

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