What is the IEA's revised 2024 global oil supply forecast, and how does it compare to its previous estimate?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2024 global oil supply forecast downward by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing the total to 102.02 million bpd — its lowest forecast for the year yet. This represents an increase in the projected supply drop compared to its July report, which had estimated a 3.7 million bpd decline.

Why did the IEA lower its oil supply forecast again, and what key maritime chokepoints are involved?

The IEA lowered its oil supply forecast again due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East since July, which have deepened the global oil-market deficit. Specifically, the agency cited the continued failure to reach an agreement enabling the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as central reasons for the downward revision.

IEA slashes 2026 supply forecast as Hormuz reopening remains elusive

Aug 12, 2026

The IEA reduced global oil supply forecasts by 4.3 million barrels per day due to Middle East hostilities hindering Strait transit. Total supply is now projected at 102.02 million bpd, marking the lowest estimate yet for the year.

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