According to the IEA, how might the EU's new methane regulations affect the availability of crude oil for EU refineries starting in 2027?

The IEA warns that the EU's new methane regulations—requiring imported oil and gas to meet EU-equivalent emissions monitoring or the UN-supported OGMP 2.0 standard from January 2027—could shrink the pool of legally importable crude oil for EU refineries by over 50%, as only a portion of the ~22.5 million barrels per day of global oil production expected to comply with OGMP 2.0 by 2027 will be accessible to the EU, especially given that key suppliers of hard-to-replace crudes (e.g., heavy crude for asphalt from Mexico and Venezuela) do not meet the standard.

Why does the IEA link the EU’s methane rules to potential energy security risks?

The IEA links the rules to energy security risks because restricting the tradable crude pool could force EU refineries to incur higher input costs or resort to suboptimal crude grades, thereby undermining operational resilience and supply stability; the agency further stresses that regulatory uncertainty—especially amid calls from Germany, Italy, Czechia, and over half of EU member states to delay implementation—may further constrain available supply channels.