According to the IEA, how much has global oil demand forecast been revised downward for this year, and what historical context does the agency provide for this decline?

The IEA deepened its forecast for this year’s decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels a day to 2.5 million barrels a day — the biggest loss in annual average terms since the 2020 Covid pandemic. It characterized the crisis as a 'record supply disruption' and noted the hit to 2026 oil demand is set to be on a comparable scale to the four largest shocks of the last 60 years.

What does the IEA say about the current global oil market balance, including the size of the deficit and inventory trends?

The IEA reports an average global oil deficit of about 1.7 million barrels a day this year — up from 1.3 million a day in last month’s report — with stockpiles continuing to draw in the fourth quarter instead of increasing as previously forecast; between February and August, inventories declined at a stark rate of 2.8 million barrels a day, and global oil inventories have been drawing at record rates.

IEA Warns Oil Demand May Have to Fall Further as Iran War Drags

Sep 11, 2026

The IEA cut its global oil demand forecast by 940,000 barrels per day due to Iran conflict supply constraints, projecting a record deficit of 1.7 million barrels daily this year. Brent crude surged past $100, impacting petrochemical feedstocks in Asia.

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