Why did the IEA cut its Russian oil production forecasts, and by how much for this year and next?

The IEA cut its Russian oil production forecasts due to Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure—including oil refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure—which have weakened the production outlook. It reduced its forecast for this year by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) and for next year by 150,000 bpd, bringing the average projection over the forecast period to 8.8 million bpd.

What were Russia's June 2024 crude production and export figures, and how did they compare to May and OPEC+ quotas?

Russia's June 2024 crude production was 8.86 million bpd—up 120,000 bpd from May but 900,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota; total crude exports reached 5.8 million bpd in June, up 620,000 bpd from May, while oil products exports fell by 230,000 bpd to 1.91 million bpd.

IEA's Russian oil output forecasts cut after Ukraine attacks

Jul 10, 2026

The IEA cut Russian oil production forecasts by up to 150,000 bpd amid Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Crude exports surged to record levels in June, prompting Moscow to ban diesel exports to manage domestic shortages.

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