How should we view Lula's victory in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election? What impacts will it bring to Brazil?

This election was arguably the most polarized and fiercely contested in Brazil’s history. The final result indicated a narrow victory for the left. The incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, who won the 2018 Brazilian presidential election and assumed office the following year, suffered defeat in this election. Bolsonaro had long openly expressed his admiration for Donald Trump, closely emulating Trump’s approaches on issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and LGBT rights—and even abandoning Brazil’s longstanding foreign policy of neutrality and multilateralism, earning him the nickname “Brazil’s Trump.” By contrast, Lula is a quintessential left-wing figure. He was Brazil’s first president from a working-class background and has consistently emphasized reducing economic inequality and expanding income, education, and healthcare opportunities for impoverished families. In 2018, after leaving office, Lula was sentenced to 580 days in prison on corruption charges and thus barred from running in that year’s election. However, in 2021, a Brazilian court annulled his prior conviction. In fact, over the past 18 months, left-wing candidates have won elections across numerous Latin American countries—particularly in Chile, Colombia, and Peru. A key driver behind these outcomes has been voters’ dissatisfaction with right-wing leaders’ handling of the pandemic. Brazil’s election result thus serves once again as evidence of Latin America’s broader leftward shift. Public discontent with the incumbent’s economic performance The election outcome means Lula will begin his third presidential term—a historic first in Brazil where an incumbent president lost a re-election bid—reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. During the pandemic, Brazil experienced soaring inflation and sharply rising living costs, which at one point severely eroded Bolsonaro’s approval ratings. However, Brazil’s unemployment rate had declined for seven consecutive months prior to the election, and inflationary pressures had recently eased. Moreover, in July, the Bolsonaro administration launched a multi-billion-dollar social welfare assistance program and pledged to extend it if re-elected—factors that helped partially recover his support.

Latin America is about to turn fully rightward: right-wing candidates win the Peruvian presidential election, and right-wing candidates lead in Colombia’s presidential race.

In Colombia, far-right political newcomer Álvaro Uribe’s protégé, Álvaro Delgado (often dubbed “Colombia’s Trump”), secured first place in the first round of voting with 43.74% (over 10 million votes), while leftist ruling-party candidate Iván Duque’s successor, Gustavo Petro’s ally Iván Cepeda, received 40.9%, placing second—just under three percentage points behind. Since neither candidate secured a majority, a runoff election will be held on June 21. Centrist-right candidate Paloma Valencia, who garnered less than 7% of the vote, withdrew from the race and immediately endorsed Delgado, urging voters to “defeat Cepeda.” Delgado, a lawyer and businessman with no prior political experience, had long been underestimated in opinion polls; his strong showing was widely seen as a political upset. Several Latin American right-wing leaders—including Argentine President Javier Milei—promptly congratulated Delgado on Twitter following his first-round victory. Current polling for the runoff shows Delgado leading by approximately 7–8 percentage points. If elected, he would further intensify Latin America’s rightward trend. Currently, eight Latin American countries remain under left-wing governments: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Excluding the three countries where authoritarian regimes preclude genuine democratic elections—Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—the remaining five democracies are: Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, and Uruguay. According to a Datafolha poll released on April 11, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro led 46% to 45%—marking the first time in this series of polls that President Lula of Brazil was numerically surpassed by a right-wing rival. A concurrent Genial/Quaest poll similarly showed Flávio leading 42% to 40%. Lula’s declining approval stems primarily from economic pressures: Brazil’s benchmark interest rate stands at 14.75%; the IMF has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Brazil to 1.6%; and scandals—including the Banco Master banking scandal and a major social security fraud case—have further damaged public confidence. Lula’s government approval rating now stands at only 40%, while disapproval has risen to 50.9%. Analysts note that conservative, right-wing voters may be consolidating behind Flávio out of anti-Workers’ Party sentiment. With the two candidates separated by only the margin of polling error, the final outcome hinges on roughly 3% of undecided or swing voters. Brazil’s next presidential election will be held in October.

In Brazil, Frustration Over Cost of Living Undermines Lula's Reelection Bid

18 hours ago

Rising food prices and inflation are eroding support for President Lula ahead of Brazil's election, prompting candidates to propose agricultural and fiscal reforms. Key issues include fertilizer production, grain storage, and supermarket price stability.

reuters

2026-09-26

In Brazil, Frustration Over Cost of Living Undermines Lula's Reelection Bid

In Brazil, Frustration Over Cost of Living Undermines Lula's Reelection Bid

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