The global oil refining and petroleum trade landscape in 2030

Japan’s refined product demand is projected to decline by nearly 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2030. Japanese refineries—primarily built to meet domestic fuel demand—are at a competitive disadvantage internationally due to their smaller scale and lower complexity compared with newer Asian refineries. Compounding this disadvantage is their reliance on lighter, more expensive crude oils, which yield lower-value products. The Yamaguchi refinery closed in Q1 2024, bringing the cumulative refinery capacity retired in Japan since 2006 to 1.7 million bpd—approximately one-third of the industry’s peak capacity two decades earlier. In contrast, South Korea’s petroleum demand remains relatively stable. Its refining industry is deeply integrated with its domestic petrochemical sector, making it the only net exporter of refined products in the region. Nevertheless, it remains heavily dependent on imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ethane, and naphtha to feed its petrochemical industry. Despite this, South Korea’s total refined product surplus is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to over 500,000 bpd by 2030—reducing the region’s transportation fuel shortfall by nearly 300,000 bpd. Other Asian countries (excluding India, China, and OECD Asia-Pacific members) are expanding and upgrading existing refineries to meet international fuel standards, thereby partially alleviating their dependence on imported petroleum products. Indonesia’s Balikpapan refinery will increase its crude distillation capacity by 100,000 bpd in 2025; Thailand will complete its 125,000-bpd Sri Racha refinery project in 2026; Brunei’s second phase of the Pulau Muara Besar refinery—including a 55,000-bpd expansion—is scheduled to begin operations in 2029; and Mongolia and Vietnam will carry out minor upgrades to existing refineries, adding a combined 50,000 bpd of refining capacity. Despite these upgrades and expansions, population and economic growth—alongside petrochemical industry expansion—will continue to leave these Asian countries heavily reliant on imports of gasoline, naphtha, ethane, and LPG. (7) India’s refining capacity will continue to grow. India’s refining industry has set a clear strategic objective: to serve as a reliable global supplier of light and middle distillates while simultaneously meeting domestic fuel demand effectively. India’s refining capacity is expected to continue growing through 2030, with several large-scale capacity expansions underway. Although facing competition from Gulf export-oriented refineries and challenges associated with decarbonization, Indian operators are preparing to maintain their role as international product suppliers. Significant investment will be required—including integration of low-carbon hydrogen and renewable energy sources. Macroeconomic and socio-economic drivers, along with initiatives such as ‘Make in India,’ are expected to boost demand for aviation fuel, gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical products in India. However, government policies—including the 20% ethanol blending mandate and the rise of electric vehicles—may moderate gasoline demand growth in the coming years, potentially increasing refined product exports. Meanwhile, sustained per capita GDP growth and urbanization are expected to drive robust overall petroleum product demand, ensuring continued vitality for India’s refining industry. Over the past few decades, India’s refining capacity has grown significantly—from approximately 3 million bpd between 2006 and 2023.

An initial understanding of India’s energy production, consumption, and import-export situation based on fundamental data

In 2023, India’s coal consumption increased by 12.6%, reaching nearly 1.3 billion short tons (approximately 1.179 billion metric tons). Robust economic growth drove higher electricity demand, which was met predominantly by coal-fired power generation. Key drivers behind the 2023 increase in coal consumption included rising electricity demand, infrastructure projects (e.g., cement production), increased steel output, higher ambient temperatures, and reduced hydropower generation. Regarding imports and exports, India’s coal imports rose by 14.2% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 264 million short tons (approximately 239 million metric tons). Imported coal accounted for 20.3% of India’s total coal consumption that year—indicating a relatively low level of dependence on international markets. The Asia-Pacific region supplied 64.5% of India’s total coal imports, with Indonesia (41.8%) and Australia (18.4%) supplying the majority of India’s imported coal in 2023. Although total coal imports increased, imports from India’s two largest coal suppliers—Indonesia (−2.0%) and Australia (−5.0%)—declined year-on-year in 2023. By contrast, coal imports surged most sharply from the United States (+7.7 million short tons), South Africa (+7.5 million short tons), and Russia (+5.8 million short tons). (II) Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Import-Export Situation In 2023, India’s production of petroleum and other liquid fuels stood at 939,000 bpd, with crude oil and condensate output falling to 604,000 bpd—the lowest level since 1993. This decline was primarily attributable to weather-related disruptions and the maturing status of many oilfields. In 2023, India’s onshore oilfields produced 294,000 bpd of crude oil, while offshore fields contributed 298,000 bpd. Seven national oil companies (NOCs) accounted for the majority (78%) of India’s oil production, while joint ventures and private firms produced the remaining 22%. As of 2023, India’s proven petroleum reserves totaled 4.9 billion barrels, concentrated mainly onshore (61.3% onshore, 38.7% offshore). Since 2020, India’s consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels has increased annually. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), India’s petroleum consumption reached 5.3 million bpd in 2023—a 4.4% increase year-on-year. Growth in gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel demand has been the primary driver behind rising petroleum consumption. In 2024, consumption is projected to reach 5.5 million bpd, and India’s petroleum consumption is expected to grow by 6% in 2025. India possesses the second-largest refining capacity in Asia, standing slightly below 5.2 million bpd in 2024. An additional 500,000–2.4 million bpd of refining capacity is expected to come online in India by 2028. In fiscal year 2022, India’s crude oil processing volume rose 5.6% year-on-year to 5.1 million bpd, while refined product output increased by 4.8% over the same period. In fiscal year 2022, India’s refined product output grew 4.8% year-on-year to 266.5 million metric tons. Diesel (42.9%) and gasoline (16.1%) together accounted for nearly half of total refined product output.

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