What is the current outlook for the papermaking industry?

• Cultural paper: 5 million tons of production capacity shifted to other grades has established a floor; price hikes have been implemented, but only short-term, pulse-like rallies are expected. • Wood pulp: High inventory levels are suppressing prices; near-term trend is sideways-to-weak. • White cardboard: Limited new capacity additions; prices are recovering from lows. • Corrugated and linerboard: Driven by both export growth and seasonal demand, industry prosperity continues to rise. Valuation perspective: Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper trade at P/B ratios near historical lows—providing ample margin of safety [10]. 1. Medium term (2027–2028): Ongoing capacity rationalization will restore supply-demand balance; integrated forest-pulp-paper leaders will see sustained gains in profitability and market share—short-term natural disasters do not alter this long-term logic. 2. Long term: Industry concentration will continue rising; self-sufficiency in raw materials and low-carbon infrastructure constitute core competitive barriers; integrated leaders enjoy superior long-term earnings resilience [7][8]. 3. Key drivers: 1. No large-scale new capacity additions scheduled for 2026—marking an inflection point in the supply cycle; 2. Strong certainty around traditional peak demand in H2 (e-commerce and textbook procurement); 3. El Niño-driven increases in waste paper costs are reinforcing price floors; 4. Large-scale shutdowns of cultural paper machines and gradual implementation of price hikes across paper grades; 5. Export performance of corrugated board exceeding expectations, with leading players coordinating to stabilize pricing; 6. Dual-carbon policies accelerating the exit of outdated capacity; 7. Rising oil prices providing cost support for raw materials. 4. Key risks: 1. Slower-than-expected recovery in downstream consumption; 2. Significant volatility in wood pulp, waste paper, or oil prices; 3. Unexpected acceleration in new capacity rollout; 4. Rapid recovery of raw material supply following the end of Guangxi’s heavy rainfall; 5. Inability to pass through price hikes to end-users in the cultural paper segment; 6. HK stock market liquidity constraints pressuring Nine Dragons Paper’s valuation; 7. Policy shifts on environmental protection, import/export regulations, or exchange rates. 5. Key monitoring indicators: Supply: Wood pulp deliveries, cultural paper production shifts, Guangxi plant utilization, corrugated & linerboard plant utilization; Demand: Export growth rate, textbook tender results, channel inventory levels; Prices: Wood pulp, waste paper, finished paper, crude oil, RMB exchange rate; Profitability: Progress in implementing price hikes across paper grades; Valuation: Changes in HK market liquidity. IV. Comprehensive Overview of A-Share Industry Chain Players 1. Summary Table of Industry Chain Players Industry Chain Segment Sub-sector Core Listed Companies Upstream (Integrated Forest-Pulp Operations) Wood pulp production Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, Bohui Paper, Xianhe Shares Midstream – Cultural Paper Offset/Art paper Sun Paper, Huatai Shares, Chenming Paper, Wuzhou Special Paper Midstream – White Cardboard Food-grade card / premium white cardboard Bohui Paper, Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper Midstream – Packaging Paper Corrugated & linerboard Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper, Shan Ying International, Lee & Man Paper Midstream – Specialty Paper Decorative / functional specialty paper Wuzhou Special Paper, Huawei Tech, Xianhe Shares Midstream – Tissue Paper Consumer tissue products Zhongshun Jierou High-beta segments Exports, recycling, chemical integration Baiya Co., Yongxin Shares, Yingke Recycling, Yingke Medical Source: [1][11][16][18] 2. In-depth Profiles of Core Leaders Sun Paper (002078.SZ) 1. Capacity layout: Three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos—total capacity exceeds 14 million tons, covering all paper categories. 2. Core advantages: 460,000 hectares of forestland in Laos—reducing wood chip costs by 30–40%; captive power plants hedge against oil price fluctuations; continued pulp-and-paper capacity ramp-up scheduled for 2026–2028. 3. Investment rationale: Integrated full-chain leader with stable earnings, trading at historically low valuations—and poised to benefit from recoveries in packaging and cultural paper segments [1][2][10].

Q2 2024 Review of the Papermaking Industry — Corporate Highlights

April 2024 April 1: Zhongqing Special Fiber Materials’ “supercapacitor separator” was included in the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council’s (SASAC) publication, 'Catalogue of Scientific and Technological Innovation Achievements of Central SOEs (2023 Edition)', as a breakthrough achievement in new materials. April 2: China National Paper and Pulp Research Institute and the National Engineering Laboratory for Papermaking jointly announced the list of projects funded under their 2023 Industrialization Special Open Fund. April 2: QingShan Paper released its 2023 annual report: revenue reached RMB 2.673 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 122 million. April 3: COSCO Shipping Special Transportation signed a Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Mitsubishi Paper for Brazilian pulp transportation. April 4: Yueyang Forest Paper released its 2023 annual report: total operating revenue amounted to RMB 8.641 billion. April 5: COSCO Shipping Special Transportation successfully launched its first dedicated pulp train—the “Shudao–Yangtze River Express.” April 11: Keshenglong and Hanhong announced a strategic partnership, committing to deep collaboration in product R&D and market expansion. April 11: Chenming Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shandong Port Group and participated in the centralized signing ceremony for the “Forest–Timber–Paper” supply chain service initiative. April 12: A forest pest detection AI application co-developed by Finnish company Metsä Group and CollectiveCrunch won the Grand Prize at the “2023 International Quality Innovation Awards”; Metsä Fibre’s Future Sawmill concept received the “Innovation Award for Large Enterprises.” April 15: Chenming Paper released its Q1 2024 report: revenue reached RMB 6.761 billion (+3.84% YoY); net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 58 million (+121.13% YoY), turning profitable after losses in the prior year. April 16: International Paper (IP.US) agreed to acquire UK-based paper and packaging company DS Smith in an all-stock deal valued at £5.8 billion (~USD 7.2 billion). April 18: Yueyang Forest Paper released its Q1 2024 results: revenue totaled ~RMB 1.96 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders was ~RMB 80.84 million. April 18: COSCO Shipping Special Transportation commissioned its fourth 77,000-ton multi-purpose pulp carrier, the GREEN RIO DE JANEIRO, into service at Dalian port. April 19: Hexing Packaging released its 2023 annual report: revenue totaled ~RMB 12.414 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders was ~RMB 103 million. April 24: Shan Ying International released its Q1 2024 report: operating revenue reached RMB 6.669 billion (+5.00% YoY); net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 39.06 million—turning profitable after losses in the prior year. April 24: Jingxing Paper received government subsidies totaling ~RMB 11.98 million—bringing cumulative subsidies for the year to RMB 25.07 million. April 24: Zhongrong Packaging released its 2023 annual report: revenue reached RMB 2.593 billion (+4.82% YoY); net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 204 million. April 24: Zhongshun Jierou released its 2023 annual report: sales revenue reached RMB 9.801 billion (+14.37% YoY).

International Paper Stock to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

Apr 28, 2026

International Paper will report Q1 2026 earnings on April 30 with projected revenue of $6.05 billion. Strategic acquisitions aim to offset weak packaging demand, though analysts maintain a Strong Sell rating.