Wei Wei Dao Lai | Only 15 Days Remain: Both Iran and Ukraine Are Giving Trump a Hard Time

Reporter Wang Yiwei At 8:42 a.m. Beijing time on October 19, 2026, New York crude oil futures stood at USD 97.586 per barrel, while Brent crude futures reached USD 108.040 per barrel. Oil prices in the two major markets—one slightly below USD 100, the other above—rose marginally compared to one week earlier. With just 15 days remaining until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the current situation is that both Iran and Ukraine are, coincidentally, giving Trump a hard time. Iran’s approach involves intensifying its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously signaling its openness to renewed negotiations with the United States. According to information released by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on October 16, the agency received 12 reports of vessel attacks during the week ending that day—10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz, and one each in the Persian Gulf west of the strait and the Gulf of Oman east of it. UKMTO also noted that the actual number of attacks remains difficult to ascertain accurately, as most affected vessels refuse to report incidents to the agency. While escalating its blockade, Iran continues to keep the door open for negotiations—and has even improved its terms: whereas Iran previously pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days following a successful U.S.-Iran agreement, it has now shortened that timeframe to six days. According to a Xinhua News Agency report citing the Iranian Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on October 18, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated in Baghdad, Iraq’s capital, that Iran’s conditions for halting hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are clear and have been formally conveyed to the United States under a “seven-day plan.” Should the U.S. meet Iran’s stipulated conditions, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on the sixth day, and negotiations would resume on the seventh. Amir-Abdollahian added that Iran stands ready to resolve issues diplomatically at any time—but stressed that such negotiations must be grounded in dignity and honor. In response to Iran’s maximum-pressure campaign, Trump has opted for deterrence. On one hand, Trump has repeatedly threatened airstrikes against Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility; on the other, several U.S. media outlets recently reported that the White House and the Pentagon are planning to deploy the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB)—nicknamed the “Mother of All Bombs”—against Iranian military targets. Trump has neither confirmed nor denied these reports, only clarifying that the MOAB is not a nuclear weapon but rather an exceptionally powerful conventional bomb.

Iran Situation Weekly Report: Iran Conducts Intensive Missile Tests and Escalates Ship Attacks; Oil Prices Hit Nearly Five-Month High; U.S.-Iran Rivalry in the Middle East Flares Anew

October 10–11: Houthi Attack on Saudi Airport; Iran Conducts Intensive Missile Tests On October 10, Yemen’s Houthi armed group launched a missile strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, killing at least 12 people. Saudi authorities temporarily closed the airport in response. Trump stated the same day that he was considering launching offensive strikes against the Houthis—but no direct U.S. military action against the Houthis occurred during the week, and Trump himself made no final decision. On October 11, according to Iranian domestic media and open-source intelligence accounts, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted over 30 test launches of medium-range ballistic missiles—including the Emad and Kheibar Shekan systems—as well as Shahed-136 drones, and tested the Jajale air defense system. The timing of these tests closely coincided with U.S. media reports about Washington “considering a resumption of strikes,” leading many external observers to interpret them as Iran’s preparations for a potential new round of conflict. October 12: Iran’s Behind-the-Scenes Threats Against Saudi Oil Infrastructure; Tightened Control Over Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz According to a Wall Street Journal report dated October 12, Iranian officials issued behind-the-scenes warnings to the United States—via Arab countries and mediators—that if the U.S. resumes military operations, Iran would adopt “more aggressive” measures against U.S. troops and naval vessels, explicitly naming Saudi oil infrastructure as a target. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, analyzed that these threats aim to deter the U.S. from launching large-scale strikes—not to provoke escalation. Iran also threatened attacks on digital infrastructure linked to the United States, an apparent effort to broaden the scope of potential U.S. vulnerabilities. On the same day, Iran further tightened control over vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The commander of the IRGC Navy warned that ships disabling their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) or attempting to pass through the strait covertly would be treated as hostile targets. Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, claimed that over the past two to three months, Iran had attacked approximately five small vessels engaged in ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Gulf of Oman each night. Data from energy analytics firm Kpler showed that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz during the first week of October declined by 27% week-on-week—Kpler attributed this primarily to reduced ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Diplomatic channels remain open. According to Xinhua News Agency reports, indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continue via third-party mediators; Iran has presented the U.S. with a seven-point proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On October 11, Shamkhani stated that Washington’s response was “insufficient”; on October 12, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was reviewing the U.S.’s latest reply—but emphasized that its conditions for reopening the strait remain unchanged. Significant differences persist between the two sides’ positions on freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. October 13–14: Two Cargo Ships Sink, Marking the Week’s Peak in Vessel Attacks On October 13, an Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is deploying “new tactics” in the Strait of Hormuz—altering both the “type” and “rhythm” of its attacks—with the explicit goal of driving up oil prices and pressuring Trump ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections. One Iranian official indicated that these new tactics began around October 4. From October 13 to 14, the most severe commercial vessel sinkings of the week occurred in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters.

Iran Ramps Up Attacks on Ships in Strait of Hormuz, 12 Struck in Four Days

Oct 14, 2026

Iran has escalated attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with 12 incidents in four days, driving up crude oil prices and disrupting chemical supply chains for polymers and titanium dioxide.

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Iran Ramps Up Attacks on Ships in Strait of Hormuz, 12 Struck in Four Days

FAQ