Iraq—a rapidly rising oil-producing country increasingly tilting toward the United States and the West

Most Middle Eastern countries’ global clout still hinges on their oil and/or natural gas output—making it unsurprising that they strive to maximize this production, whether by boosting actual output, exaggerating reported output, or forecasting future output increases. Historically, Iraq has fallen into the latter category, repeatedly pledging substantial oil production hikes without ever delivering. By contrast, Saudi Arabia—the region’s largest oil producer—belongs to the former category, periodically announcing its oil production ‘capacity’ at 11, 12, or even 13 million barrels per day (bpd). In reality, Iraq’s average crude oil output from 1973 to 2026 was only 2.38 million bpd. Just before the blockade of the world’s major oil shipping routes in February 2026, Iraq’s output had reached 4.14 million bpd. In comparison, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Saudi Arabia has never sustained output at its claimed ‘capacity’ level—not even for a prolonged period—and has never achieved stable production consistent with that definition. Instead, Saudi Arabia’s average crude oil output from 1973 to 2026 stood at 8.29 million bpd; just before the Strait of Hormuz blockade, its output was 10.1 million bpd. Recently, however, Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi announced that the country plans to raise its oil output to 8–10 million bpd within the next six years. This plan may ultimately be validated—and could even propel Iraq past Saudi Arabia as the region’s top oil producer—for three key reasons. First, if properly managed, Iraq has long possessed sufficient proven reserves to reach such output levels. According to official EIA data, Iraq’s proven crude oil reserves stand conservatively at 145 billion barrels—approximately 18% of the Middle East’s total and about 9% of the global total. Yet, while publishing these official reserve figures, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil also informally indicated that its undiscovered resource base amounts to roughly 215 billion barrels—a figure aligned with a detailed 1997 study by the prominent oil-and-gas consultancy Petrolog. Even so, this estimate excludes the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that most of Iraq’s producing fields were developed prior to the 1970s, when technological capabilities and low oil prices led to a narrower commercial definition of viable wells than in later decades. The IEA estimates Iraq’s total technically recoverable resources—including Kurdistan—at approximately 246 billion barrels (crude oil and natural gas liquids). All these figures align with the framework set forth in the Iraqi government-funded National Energy Strategy (INES), published in 2013, which outlines three prospective oil production scenarios for Iraq. Under the most optimistic scenario, Iraq’s crude oil production capacity would rise to 13 million bpd by 2017, peak before 2023, then gradually decline but stabilize long-term at around 10 million bpd. The medium scenario projects output reaching 9 million bpd by 2020; the most pessimistic scenario forecasts 6 million bpd—also by 2020.

Global Crude Oil Market Analysis under the U.S.-Israel-Iran War Context (Part I)

Table of Contents ・Section 1: Crude Oil Production Issues ・Section 2: Crude Oil Consumption Issues ・Section 3: Transportation Issues ・Section 4: Iran-related Issues ・Section 5: Major Asian-Pacific Importing Countries ・Section 6: Crude Oil Supply Disruption Issues ・Section 7: Production Expansion Issues across Major Oil-Producing Regions ・Section 8: Crude Oil Quality Issues ・Section 9: Natural Gas Dimension ・Section 10: Financial Markets and Oil Price Transmission Mechanisms ・Section 11: Strategic Petroleum Reserves and Emergency Response Mechanisms ・Section 12: Insurance, Shipping, and Maritime Security ・Section 13: OPEC+ Decision-Making and Spare Capacity ・Section 14: Demand-Side Responses and Demand Destruction ・Section 15: Special Analysis on China ・Section 16: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Markets ・Section 17: Historical Case Comparisons ・Section 18: Inflation Transmission and Central Bank Policy Responses ・Section 19: War Trends and Geopolitical Competition Analysis Section 1: Crude Oil Production Issues 1a. Global Production Trends Over the past decade (2016–2025), global crude oil and liquid fuels output averaged approximately 99.2 million barrels per day (mb/d). Over the past two years (2024–2025), the average stood at roughly 102.5–103.0 mb/d. Overall, output has trended upward—but growth has slowed. Output fell to 93.9 mb/d in 2020 due to COVID-19, then gradually recovered, surpassing 101 mb/d for the first time in 2023—a new record high. Growth has been driven primarily by U.S. shale oil, Brazil’s deepwater production, and Guyana—non-OPEC+ producers. Year Output (mb/d) YoY Change 2016 97.2 +0.4% 2017 97.8 +0.6% 2018 100.6 +2.9% 2019 100.6 0.0% 2020 93.9 −6.7% 2021 95.6 +1.8% 2022 99.4 +4.0% 2023 101.8 +2.4% 2024 102.5 (est.) +0.7% 2025 103.0 (est.) +0.5% [Sources] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), IEA Oil Market Report, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 1b. Top Crude Oil Producers by Daily Output (2024–2025 Average) Rank Country Output (mb/d) 1 United States 21.5 2 Saudi Arabia 10.85 3 Russia 10.55 4 Canada 5.85 5 Iraq 4.35 6 China 4.2 7 United Arab Emirates 4.05 8 Brazil 3.8 9 Iran 3.3 10 Kuwait 2.7 11 Norway 2.0 12 Kazakhstan 1.9 Global total: ~102.5–103.0 mb/d. U.S. data includes crude oil, condensates, natural gas liquids (NGL), and biofuels; pure crude oil output is estimated at 13.2–13.5 mb/d. Saudi Arabia and Russia operate below capacity due to OPEC+ production cuts—their actual productive capacity far exceeds current output. [Sources] EIA International Energy Statistics, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), IEA Oil Market Report (OMR)

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