AI revenue concerns eased, Asian stocks edged higher, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, gold price broke above $4,200, and iron ore posted three consecutive weeks of declines.

Asian equities rose broadly by 0.3%, and European index futures also pointed to higher openings. U.S. equity futures advanced: S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.5%. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects its annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion this year—addressing prior skepticism about its revenue being only around $5 billion annually—and thereby alleviating earlier pessimism triggered by AI-related earnings data. Spot gold surged over 1.6% to approximately $4,200 per ounce; spot silver rose 2.0% to $60.36 per ounce. The strength in precious metals was primarily driven by a retreat in long-dated U.S. Treasury yields from their more-than-two-decade highs. Brent crude oil fell 1.2% to $102.95 per barrel, after former U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. would not launch an attack on Iran before the November midterm elections. Josh Gilbert, eToro’s Chief Analyst for Asia-Pacific, commented: “The AI trade has experienced several weeks of volatility, compounded by U.S. Treasury yields at multi-year highs—tempering investor risk appetite. The upcoming earnings season over the next few weeks will be a major test: companies that have invested the most capital in AI will signal to the market whether they remain willing to double down.” Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was virtually unchanged from the previous day; South Korea’s stock market was closed today. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%; Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.5%. The spot U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note held steady at 5.22%. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield fell 5.5 basis points to 3.025%. Spot gold rose over 1.6% to ~$4,200/oz; spot silver rose 2.0% to $60.36/oz. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $102.95 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 1.3% to $90.27 per barrel. Iron Ore: Mounting Bearish Signals Amid Supply Expansion and Weak Demand Iron ore prices remain under sustained pressure. Singapore iron ore futures dipped 0.9% intraday Friday, hitting their lowest level since September 2024 at $90.90 per tonne; Dalian iron ore futures likewise hovered near a two-year low. Over the past three weeks, iron ore prices registered gains on just one trading day. Analysts at Yong’an Futures noted in their latest weekly report that iron ore pricing logic is shifting—from the prior combination of “high hot metal output + freight cost support”—toward a market increasingly dominated by rising supply, weakening demand, and inventory accumulation. Their outlook for Q4 remains bearish. David Cachot, Head of Iron Ore Research at Wood Mackenzie, observed that Guinea’s exports are accelerating rapidly as transshipment capacity expands, further exacerbating global oversupply. Demand-side indicators have yet to show clear deterioration. According to Mysteel data, average daily pig iron output has remained stable at around 2.34 million tonnes.

Plunging below the $100 threshold! Iron ore prices hit a one-year low, with UBS warning of persistently deteriorating supply-demand fundamentals.

The iron ore market is under mounting pressure. Singapore iron ore futures fell to their lowest level in a year, and UBS analysts warned of continued deterioration in fundamentals, forecasting further price declines to $95 per tonne by 2027. Singapore’s benchmark iron ore futures plunged 2.3% intraday to $93.65 per tonne—the lowest intraday level since July 2025; Dalian’s most actively traded contract fell nearly 3% over the same period. According to Bloomberg, weak steel demand, narrowing mill profit margins, and persistent supply growth constitute the core bearish drivers in the current market. Meanwhile, large physical trader Radiant World recently became embroiled in a fake invoice controversy. Vitol Group and Cargill Inc. have suspended business dealings with the firm, while Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Point Bonita Fund—a unit of Jefferies Financial Group—have initiated reviews of their exposure to Radiant World, further amplifying market uncertainty. Radiant World has denied the allegations, calling the claims “completely false.” UBS: Price Unlikely to Reclaim $100 Level Myles Allsop, UBS’s London-based Mining & Metals Research Analyst, recently stated unequivocally that iron ore fundamentals are deteriorating and that prices have begun testing the lower end of their trading range. Allsop directly addressed market speculation about whether iron ore prices could rebound above $100 per tonne by 2027—and answered in the negative. He explained that ongoing supply growth coupled with sluggish demand has led to substantial inventory accumulation over the past 12 months, reinforcing a structural oversupply situation. In terms of price forecasts, UBS projects the average iron ore price at approximately $100 per tonne in 2026, falling further to around $95 per tonne in 2027.

Iron Ore Extends Weekly Drop as Excess Supply, Weak Demand Weighs

Oct 8, 2026

Iron ore prices dropped for a third week amid excess supply and weak demand, hitting lows since September 2024. High inventories and low mill profitability suggest a bearish outlook for the fourth quarter.

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Iron Ore Extends Weekly Drop as Excess Supply, Weak Demand Weighs

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