White Petroleum in the Carbon-Neutral Era: It Is the Right Time to Reassess the Lithium Resource Value of ALB, SQM, and Livent

Salt lake lithium resources are primarily distributed across the South American 'Lithium Triangle' (comprising parts of Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia), western United States, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau salt lake region in China. The most renowned among these is the Salar de Atacama in Chile—jointly exploited by SQM and Albemarle (ALB) (note: SQM and ALB hold only extraction rights to the Salar de Atacama). We hold a positive outlook on the resource endowments of ALB and SQM. From the perspective of salt lake resource distribution and supply, SQM and ALB are roughly on par; next come Livent (spun off from FMC) and Orocobre. Domestically, Chinese brine-based lithium producers remain far from competitive with their international peers in terms of supply capacity. Lithium Salt Production Distribution As shown in the data for 2020, U.S.-based Albemarle Corporation (ALB) still held the largest global market share, followed by China’s Ganfeng Lithium in second place. SQM—23.77% owned by Tianqi Lithium—ranked third, while Tianqi Lithium itself ranked fourth in output volume, and Livent fifth. From the standpoint of extraction costs, cost control constitutes one of the core elements of integrated competitiveness for lithium chemical enterprises—and serves as a key performance indicator reflecting internal management systems and operational effectiveness. A lithium mining company’s profitability hinges largely on its cost-control capability, with extraction costs constituting a major portion thereof. As illustrated in the chart above, the lowest global lithium extraction costs currently belong to FMC’s subsidiary Livent (LTHM), Albemarle (ALB), and Orocobre. Accordingly, this analysis focuses primarily on the three companies possessing the strongest resource endowments: ALB, SQM, and Livent. Key Company Analysis Albemarle Corporation (ALB) Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, is a global specialty chemicals company. Its origins trace back to 1887; today, Albemarle is a world leader in lithium, bromine, and catalyst solutions. Its products serve as additives or intermediates in diverse applications—including pharmaceuticals, cleaning products, water treatment, agriculture, electronics manufacturing, oil refining, papermaking, and photography. Its chemicals function as additives or intermediates in plastics, polymers, synthetic rubber, cleaning agents, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, composite drilling tools, and biocides. Its Polymer Solutions business provides brominated, mineral, and phosphorus-based flame retardants used in consumer electronics, printed circuit boards, wires and cables, electrical connectors, textiles, foam insulation materials, and plastics—as well as other additives such as vulcanizing agents, antioxidants, and stabilizers. The company operates globally, serving customers worldwide. Albemarle implements its AWE (Always Winning Excellence) operating model—pursuing global resource development (including lithium and other minerals), delivering high-quality products and services, and jointly fostering long-term sustainable competitiveness with employees and customers. 1. Analysis of Albemarle’s Lithium Business According to 2020 data, Albemarle’s core businesses comprise lithium, catalysts, and bromine. Catalyst and bromine businesses remained relatively stable, growing at approximately the same pace as U.S. GDP. Our focus here is on lithium-related operations: lithium accounted for 37% of Albemarle’s total revenue, and the company projected an industry growth rate of around 20%.

U.S. House of Representatives Releases Investigation Report on Chinese Mineral Resources

Mineral refining is the critical link connecting raw ore to end-use products. Through targeted subsidies, China has built an unassailable production advantage in this sector. Currently, China controls 60%–80% of global lithium refining capacity—and accounts for as much as 77% of global rare earth refining capacity (a share expected to remain unchanged through 2030). Although China cannot control the geographical distribution of global mineral resources, its dominance over the refining stage effectively places it in control of the supply chain’s ‘faucet’: regardless of where the raw ore originates, it must pass through Chinese refineries to become usable material—granting China absolute leverage over downstream industries. 3. Dual Leverage via Law and Markets: Manipulating Global Pricing China has established a unique pricing-control system that aligns global mineral prices with its strategic objectives. On one hand, laws such as the Price Law prohibit enterprises from publishing prices deviating from government expectations, thereby centralizing authority over the definition of ‘price index manipulation.’ On the other hand, by exerting influence over core trading platforms like the London Metal Exchange (LME), China transmits artificially depressed prices globally. In the case of lithium: after lithium prices surged in 2021, the Chinese government directly intervened through two industry-wide meetings, instructing firms not to ‘set prices significantly detached from actual costs.’ As a result, lithium prices plummeted by 75% within six months—effectively scuttling U.S. plans to build domestic lithium refineries. II. Three Case Studies: How China Translates Tactics into Hegemony Across rare earths, lithium, and coal, China replicates a similar monopolistic pathway in different mineral sectors—each case clearly illustrating its combined strategy of ‘strategic planning + market manipulation.’ Case 1: Rare Earths—From Technical Collaboration to Global Monopoly China first attracted Western enterprises into joint ventures to acquire advanced technologies, then engaged in below-market-price dumping to drive international competitors out of business. In the 1990s, a Chinese enterprise acquired General Motors’ rare-earth magnet subsidiary in the U.S., operated it for only five years as stipulated in the agreement, then shut down the American plant and relocated all production capacity to China. By 2010, China controlled 90% of global rare earth refining capacity—and during the 2010 Sino-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, China deployed rare earths as a geopolitical weapon for the first time, suspending exports to Japan and triggering panic across Japan’s automotive industry. Today, through industrial consolidation, China has formed two dominant rare earth groups controlling 70% of national output—and established an export control system to further cement its monopoly. Case 2: Lithium—Precise Suppression to Block Western Supply Chain Emergence Lithium is the core material for new-energy vehicles and energy-storage batteries; China’s control over it strikes directly at the heart of the global clean-energy transition. After lithium was designated a strategic mineral in China in 2017, Chinese enterprises accelerated overseas acquisitions—achieving dominance over the entire lithium value chain within just six years. When surging global lithium prices in 2021 triggered a wave of Western refinery construction projects, the Chinese government responded by releasing additional capacity and imposing price controls—slashing lithium prices to less than half their peak level. This forced Albemarle to suspend its $1.3 billion U.S. lithium refinery project, and led numerous other American firms to cancel or withdraw from lithium initiatives. Such a strategy—‘suppress prices when they rise, expand capacity when others pursue investment’—has made it exceedingly difficult for the West to establish stable supply chains. Case 3: Coal—The ‘Training Ground’ for Price Manipulation China’s approach to coal exemplifies textbook-level mineral price control.

Is Albemarle (ALB) Undervalued After Idling Kemerton Production?

Oct 23, 2026

Albemarle shares fell after idling its Kemerton lithium hydroxide facility, though analysts estimate 42% undervaluation driven by strong global lithium demand and cost-cutting measures.