How aggressive is Anthropic’s IPO valuation? Wall Street bets: revenue will surge to $200 billion by 2028.

According to company disclosures, its annualized revenue run rate stood at approximately $9 billion by the end of 2025, rising to over $47 billion as of May this year. The company projects that revenue in Q2 2026 will reach at least $10.9 billion—more than double the prior quarter—and anticipates achieving its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million. Anthropic also stated that, over the three-year period ending early 2026, its annualized revenue run rate grew more than tenfold each year. Yet behind this rapid expansion lies massive ongoing investment in computing infrastructure and R&D. Significant expenditures continue across GPU and other compute resources, model training and inference, and talent acquisition—meaning current EBITDA still fails to fully reflect future profitability. The market’s current valuation logic hinges on the expectation that, as revenue scales, infrastructure and personnel costs as a share of revenue will decline, while training and inference efficiency continues improving—ultimately driving margin expansion. In other words, Anthropic is sacrificing near-term profits for significantly larger future revenue and profit potential. Palantir, Cloudflare, and SpaceX serve as valuation comparables Ahead of Anthropic’s Analyst Day, the market has been searching for appropriate peer companies. According to reports citing informed sources, cloud infrastructure firm Cloudflare, enterprise software company Palantir, and SpaceX have all been included in the list of valuation comparables. Per LSEG data, Palantir currently trades at a valuation multiple of roughly 53x its expected revenue for this year—among the highest on Wall Street; both SpaceX and Cloudflare trade at multiples of approximately 41.6x their projected 2026 revenues. These three firms offer distinct valuation reference points: Palantir represents a high-growth software company with meaningful AI exposure; Cloudflare exemplifies a high-growth software-and-infrastructure business; and SpaceX provides a precedent for valuing a company heavily based on future growth expectations rather than current financial performance. There are precedents for such forward-looking valuation approaches. Sources noted that supporters of Cerebras Systems cited 2028 revenue projections ahead of its IPO earlier this year; similarly, pre-IPO discussions around SpaceX—which listed in June at a record-breaking valuation—even extended forecasts out to 2029. A $2 trillion valuation: what is the market truly betting on? As Anthropic’s valuation continues climbing, debate intensifies over where its valuation ceiling truly lies.

Explanation regarding the company’s valuation

First, many valuations—whether reasonable or inflated—are for tech and AI-related companies. I’ve broadly estimated most of them, and generally see little need to issue formal valuation reports. They hold little or even negative investment value. I’ve valued over two hundred tech- and AI-related companies. Among them, only two or three appear to offer investable upside—potential gains of 100–200% or more. Next time, I’ll publish a special edition on ‘Old Man Stocks’—let’s see how many qualify.

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