It’s still on the list today, with trading volume reaching 1.42 trillion RMB—no further comments. Yesterday, I opened a short position on fuel at 471X; today it opened higher, and my entry cost is 4641—let’s take it slow. The focus remains on asphalt—take it slow, no rush. I hope it becomes the next silver; currently, I’m still holding silver. Lithium carbonate—this was fully expected. Let me mention one more thing: Is this the bottom? Clearly, no. 1. Everyone saw the further decline after hitting 3741 yesterday. This is the main force deliberately signaling to you: “Look, it’s a double bottom—I won’t fall anymore!” 2. When the index fell to 3741, trading volume contracted (this is critical—pay attention, this will be on the test!). Clearly, the main force hasn’t yet acquired enough opposing positions. The V-shaped rebound was merely meant to lure in inexperienced traders—so 3741 will definitely be broken. I even think 3500 will be breached—don’t call me a pessimist. I reckon support may emerge near 3450—just check the chart yourself. Taking a 10-month break from the broader market—focusing on individual stocks now. Stock 603533 is still hitting its ceiling—haha—should I laugh? Or should I laugh? On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan released its latest data showing that Japan’s September Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rose 6.8% year-on-year. Although this growth rate declined slightly from the previous month, inflationary pressure remains substantial, and markets continue betting on an imminent BOJ rate hike. Is a December rate hike already inevitable? The BOJ’s policy board will hold its monetary policy meeting on October 29–30, during which it will review and update its quarterly forecasts for economic growth and inflation. The CGPI data released this Tuesday will serve as one of the key indicators guiding the board’s deliberations. Today’s CGPI measures price levels for goods and services traded among Japanese enterprises. The 6.8% year-on-year increase falls below both the market consensus forecast of 7.6% and the prior month’s reading of 7.6%. Data show that sharply falling rice prices dragged down agricultural product prices by 13.3% year-on-year in September. However, prices rose broadly across numerous categories—including processed foods, electric motors, and telecommunications equipment. Meanwhile, chemical product prices surged 13.3%, plastic products rose 12.8%, and non-ferrous metal products skyrocketed 40.2%, reflecting combined pressures from yen depreciation, Middle East tensions, and surging AI-related demand driving up corporate costs. Additionally, Japan’s import price index (in yen terms) soared 24.5% year-on-year in September, indicating that persistent yen weakness continues pushing up raw material import costs. Masato Koike, Senior Economist at Sompo Institute of Research, stated: “Heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, coupled with persistently high international crude oil prices, raises the risk of wholesale inflation accelerating again.” Yet he also noted there are currently no signs of a sharp escalation in inflationary pressure, and the BOJ is highly likely to hold rates steady in October, postponing the next hike to December. Here’s another perspective—listen carefully: Some argue that while this level may not ultimately prove to be the bottom, it *is* the bottom *right now*, because breaking below it would require the ‘Paw Patrol’ (a colloquial term for government intervention forces) to deploy enormous resources to rescue the market. But let me ask you: Didn’t the ‘Paw Patrol’ withdraw in mid-January? And more importantly—why *would* they intervene? They left everyone stranded at peak levels—what’s the point of rescuing now? Tech stocks—massive in scale and extremely overvalued—were all sold at sky-high prices. Did the ‘Paw Patrol’ step in to rescue tech stocks back in July?

Kaid (Beijing) Investment Fund: Japan’s September inflation performance remained stable

Recent data shows that Japan’s core inflation held steady in September, although headline inflation moderated somewhat due to the reinstatement of energy subsidies. Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in September—0.1 percentage point above expectations but 0.4 percentage points below the previous month’s reading. Notably, the so-called “core-core” CPI—which excludes fresh food and energy—rose 2.1% year-on-year, matching market expectations. Analysts remain divided on future outlooks. Some experts believe robust wage growth will sustain consumption and keep inflation anchored around 2%, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to raise rates again by year-end. Marcel Thieliant, Head of Asia-Pacific Economics at Capital Economics, expects the inflation measure excluding fresh food and energy to hover near 2% early next year before gradually easing below 2%. Based on this, he forecasts further BOJ rate hikes within this year. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has also indicated that if inflation stabilizes sustainably at the 2% target, the BOJ will consider additional rate hikes. However, he emphasized the need for cautious assessment of how global economic uncertainties might affect Japan’s recovery. Ueda pointed out that for inflation to become durable, its drivers must shift from rising raw material prices toward more stable domestic demand and wage growth.

Japan September Chemical Wholesale Inflation Rises; Overall PPI Eases

Oct 13, 2026

Japan's chemical wholesale prices surged 13.3% year-on-year in September, driven by higher benzene and VCM costs, while overall PPI growth slowed. The IMF projects economic growth will decelerate amid persistent energy price pressures and potential monetary tightening.

icis

Japan September Chemical Wholesale Inflation Rises; Overall PPI Eases

FAQ