Don’t fight the earnings cycle! Will the U.S. stock market break 8,000 points this year?

According to Wind Trading Desk, Jefferies issued a clear warning in its latest research report dated September 14: Do not fight the earnings cycle. Driven by the dual engines of the AI investment boom and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings growth, the S&P 500 Index is projected to surge to 8,000 points by the end of this year (2026) and further reach 9,000 points in 2027. The report acknowledges macro headwinds—including rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the upcoming midterm elections—but stresses that corporate fundamentals remain the core driver of returns. Jefferies’ central thesis is clear and compelling: resisting an earnings cycle in which growth exceeds the historical average by more than double is perilous. Moreover, Jefferies believes AI-driven earnings expansion is now spreading beyond the ‘Magnificent Seven’ to broader markets—providing a more solid foundation for equities. Investors should focus on overweight sectors with robust earnings revisions and macro support, including technology, financials, healthcare, and materials—seizing this rare super-cycle of earnings growth even amid concerns over valuation compression.

Mid-year reports release multiple positive signals; re-rating of star biotech firms is imminent.

More importantly, the rapid advancement of CS5007 demonstrates that the market has severely underestimated the value of the company’s ‘Version 2.0’ pipeline. From IND application submission to approval in China, CS5007 took only 23 working days—a process targeted for completion within 30 working days under the regulatory fast-track pathway. This achievement first reflects the clinical and regulatory affairs team’s deep policy insight, proactive communication capabilities, and forward-looking strategic planning under the new regulatory framework. This highly efficient system—covering regulatory submission, stakeholder engagement, and clinical development—is highly replicable. As such, multiple future innovative pipeline assets will continue to benefit from this mature infrastructure, enabling efficient and steady clinical translation and regulatory advancement. Second, it signifies that regulators have provisionally endorsed the molecule’s early-stage data and clinical development plan. Beyond reinforcing the solid foundation for subsequent clinical trials of CS5007, it also validates that CStone Pharmaceuticals’ in-house ADC platform has undergone rigorous refinement and matured into a robust technical system. Consequently, ‘Version 2.0’ pipeline assets will accelerate into clinical development and enter trials one after another. Yet current market pricing has yet to fully reflect this core logic. Market consensus remains largely focused on individual assets, showing markedly insufficient appreciation for the deeper value embedded in the company’s ‘Version 2.0’ innovation pipeline—not to mention the platform-based business model, characterized by systematic R&D capability and consistent replication of pipeline success. This gap between market perception and underlying reality constitutes a major source of unpriced upside potential. / 03 / Convergence of Multiple Positive Signals—Explosive Upside May Exceed Expectations The greatest allure of the innovative drug sector lies in how swiftly valuation reversals can occur once market consensus shifts—as vividly illustrated by the recent rally in the mRNA sector. Although many high-quality innovative drug companies fall outside the mRNA theme, similar cognitive-repair dynamics may unfold as multiple positive signals continue converging. CStone Pharmaceuticals’ latent explosive potential therefore warrants serious attention. First, the company’s self-sustaining commercial capability continues strengthening, establishing a stable earnings base. Already-marketed products—including pralsetinib—are generating revenue through domestic reimbursement expansion under the national health insurance scheme and steady commercialization via partnership channels. In the first half of the year, revenue reached RMB 205.1 million—a more than 300% increase year-on-year—with mature-product revenue totaling RMB 183.2 million. Meanwhile, sugemalimab has secured marketing authorization in the EU and the UK, and multiple international license-out agreements have been finalized—bolstering the company’s cash flow foundation. In other words, commercial cash generation provides reliable support for CStone’s R&D expansion. This layer of certainty forms the foundational bedrock for all long-term narratives. Second, continued data updates and regulatory approvals for CS2009 are expected to further validate the pipeline’s value and unlock new expectations. In the second half of this year, CS2009 will face multiple key catalysts. On one hand, additional clinical data will be released. The company plans to present updated data at ESMO—including monotherapy and combination therapy results for metastatic colorectal cancer (both first-line and later-line settings), as well as monotherapy and combination therapy data for non-small cell lung cancer (also across first-line and later-line settings). Combined with the positive results already reported in the interim report, evidence validating the pipeline’s value will become increasingly robust—further fueling market expectations for business development partnerships and driving a correction of the current undervaluation, ultimately leading to a more fundamentally justified valuation.

Jefferies lifts target to USD 355 for Air Products and Chemicals stock

4 days ago

Jefferies raised its price target for Air Products and Chemicals to $355 following a fiscal third-quarter earnings beat of $3.47 per share. The upgrade comes ahead of the company's scheduled fourth-quarter results discussion on November 5, 2026.

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