Morning Market Snapshot, October 21, 2025

【Answer 1】 1. Last Friday, inventory of major steel products declined by 1.15% week-on-week to 15.8226 million tons, yet the year-on-year increase widened to 24.34%. Output fell by 63,600 tons, while apparent demand rose 19% week-on-week to 8.7541 million tons—still below levels seen in previous years同期. Specifically, rebar inventory dropped 2.82% to 6.4105 million tons, with apparent demand rebounding notably to 2.1975 million tons; hot-rolled coil inventory rose 1.52% to 4.1919 million tons, and its apparent demand increased to 3.1555 million tons—albeit at a relatively modest pace. 2. Overall, accumulated inventory will require time to digest; exports face new challenges; and steel supply is expected to remain elevated, highlighting persistent fundamental imbalances and sustained upward pressure on prices. Amid weak fundamentals and negative feedback across the industrial chain, the steel market may continue its downward trend. Outlook: Bearish Soda Ash & Float Glass Core Logic Last night, the主力 contract for soda ash (2601) fell 2.04%, closing at 1,203; spot prices remained largely unchanged. On last Friday night, the主力 contract for float glass (2601) declined 1.90%, closing at 1,087; spot prices in Hubei Province were as low as 1,120 yuan/ton, and in Shahu as low as 1,088 yuan/ton—indicating a slight decline in spot prices. Core Logic 1. In reality, both soda ash and float glass continue to accumulate inventory: glass inventory rose 2.31% week-on-week, soda ash inventory rose 1.49%—reigniting inventory pressure and capping upside potential. 2. Valuation-wise, both commodity and energy prices have retreated, further weighing on valuations. 3. The current near-to-far-month price spread for soda ash remains around 70 yuan/ton—broadly covering rollover costs—and thus continues to provide some price support. However, attention should be paid to the upcoming cancellation of odd-month delivery warehouse receipts; weak willingness to take physical delivery on the futures market could drive prices lower. 4. Regarding glass spreads: as the main-contract basis narrows, market expectations weaken; meanwhile, the near-month basis strengthens rapidly—testing market willingness to accept physical delivery—and potentially offering limited support. Yet, post-holiday odd-month warehouse receipt cancellation rules dampen delivery willingness, thereby pressuring futures prices. Market Outlook: Near-term prices weighed down by fundamentals; expectations may soften—view remains range-bound with a bearish bias. PTA Key Information: This week and next, PTA spot quotes in East China reference the January 2026 contract minus RMB 75–80/ton; mainstream trading ranges between RMB 4,300–4,320/ton. November-delivery cargo is quoted at January 2026 minus RMB 55/ton. Core Logic: 1. The Gaza ceasefire agreement has significantly reduced Middle Eastern geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions cloud economic prospects, though the Russia–Ukraine conflict persists—offering partial market support. Overall, international crude oil trends remain weak. 2. Current PTA operating rates stand at 75.07%; domestic supply tightness has eased somewhat. Additional plant maintenance is scheduled, keeping supply-side pressure manageable. 3. Weaving mill operating rates are 5% lower than last year, showing only mild recovery—still below historical seasonal highs. Downstream purchasing behavior toward upstream polyester filament remains rigidly “just-in-time,” with cautious, limited bulk procurement. Market Outlook: Weakness persists. PVC Key Information: Tariff disputes have had minimal impact on domestically produced PVC varieties; recent record-low prices have once again triggered destocking.

Japanese Prime Minister and Malaysian Prime Minister Hold Talks, Reaching Consensus on Energy and Security Cooperation.

【Answer 2】 Published: June 10, 2026 – 10:27 AM Updated: June 10, 2026 – 12:18 PM In light of the current Middle Eastern situation, both sides confirmed enhanced cooperation to ensure stable supplies of petroleum-related products from Malaysia and agreed to jointly strengthen supply chains for critical minerals—including rare earths. They also discussed measures to secure stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizer feedstocks. Malaysia is rich in natural resources: approximately 15% of Japan’s LNG imports come from Malaysia—second only to Australia among all import sources. Both leaders also affirmed strengthened maritime security cooperation, including joint training exercises between the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Royal Malaysian Navy. They welcomed the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between their respective coast guard agencies to further promote collaboration in maritime safety. Prime Minister Takashi stated: “Against a backdrop of rising uncertainty in global energy markets, Malaysia’s role as a stable supplier of LNG to Japan is becoming increasingly vital.” He also expressed gratitude to Malaysia—as a trusted Japanese partner—for its long-standing stable supply of LNG, medical gloves, other petroleum-related products, and fertilizer feedstocks, and requested continued reliability in these supplies. In response, Prime Minister Anwar cited the newly signed LNG procurement contract between Japanese energy firm JERA and Malaysia’s national oil company PETRONAS, affirming Malaysia’s strongest possible commitment to ensuring stable LNG supply. Both sides further agreed to advance resilience-building for energy and critical-material supply chains under the ‘Power Asia’ initiative. In the field of critical minerals, they pledged deeper bilateral cooperation alongside like-minded countries and international development finance institutions. Additionally, Prime Minister Takashi emphasized the need to leverage the ‘Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC)’ framework to advance concrete decarbonization cooperation projects. He noted that 2027 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Japan and Malaysia, adding: “We hope to further deepen the long-standing ties we have nurtured together, achieving mutual exchange and shared development.”

JERA Says LNG Stocks Secured Through October, Sees No Summer Supply Risk

Jul 30, 2026

Japan's top power generator JERA confirmed sufficient LNG inventories through October, citing no supply risk despite summer demand spikes. The firm reported a 31% profit rise attributed to strong performance in domestic thermal and gas operations.

reuters

2026-07-30

JERA Says LNG Stocks Secured Through October, Sees No Summer Supply Risk

2026-09-16

JERA Expects More Overseas LNG Sales as It Expands Trading Portfolio

JERA Says LNG Stocks Secured Through October, Sees No Summer Supply Risk

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