How much could a 'super El Niño' combined with higher energy prices raise global headline inflation, according to JPMorgan?

According to JPMorgan's report, the combination of a super El Niño and Iran war-driven energy price increases could add 0.6 percentage points to global headline inflation in the first half of 2027, slowing the expected decline in global inflation by 0.3 percentage points for the full year.

Which regions and countries are most vulnerable to food-price shocks from this super El Niño and energy shock, and why?

Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America — particularly India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia — are most vulnerable because food carries a larger weight in consumer baskets and agriculture is more weather-sensitive; Taiwan and South Korea are also identified as vulnerable, while Europe and other advanced economies face smaller direct El Niño-related food inflation impacts, with higher energy costs being their main driver of rising food prices.