Will Africa become a new global center for industrial manufacturing in the future?

For mid- and low-end industries, Africa is certain to become the next major manufacturing hub after South Asia. In fact, North African countries—Egypt and Morocco—are already regional industrial centers. Egypt’s exports of ready-made garments and chemical products are growing rapidly, while Morocco’s annual automobile production has surpassed that of South Africa, reaching one million units per year—including nearly 500,000 passenger vehicles. On a per capita basis, Morocco’s output has already reached China’s level in 2012. Of course, North Africa’s situation cannot represent Africa as a whole: its industrialization began earlier and its overall development level far exceeds that of sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, as sub-Saharan African nations gradually emerge from civil wars and achieve social stability, they now have the opportunity for peaceful development—and in this era of globalization, they are boarding the 'last train' of industrialization. For a comprehensive overview of industrialization in sub-Saharan Africa, please refer to my article titled “Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Here, I would like to introduce a towering African business magnate—through him, we can glimpse just how robust Africa’s industrial momentum truly is. This man is Aliko Dangote, Nigeria’s richest individual and an ethnic Hausa Muslim from northern Nigeria. Starting with cement trading, he built the vast Dangote Group industrial empire. Nigeria’s industrial foundation is weak, and basic industrial goods essential for industrialization are severely scarce—forcing private capital to shoulder the burden of industrialization itself. Though framed as a ‘task,’ it is equally a lucrative business opportunity: domestic supply shortages create high profit margins in local markets. Dangote’s enterprise thus began with cement manufacturing; after achieving an annual output of several tens of millions of tons across West Africa, it moved into petroleum refining. Its Lagos refinery currently processes 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day—and expansion plans aim to raise capacity to 1.4 million barrels daily. Simultaneously, the Dangote Group has launched a $15-billion refinery project in Kenya (East Africa), designed for a daily throughput of 700,000 barrels. Upon completion of both projects, the Group’s total daily refining capacity will reach 2.1 million barrels. To put this in perspective: China’s annual refining output in 1990 was 100 million tonnes—roughly equivalent to 2 million barrels per day—comparable to Dangote Group’s projected post-expansion capacity. If we include other refineries operated by sub-Saharan African enterprises, the region’s aggregate refining capacity will approach China’s level around the year 2000. Beyond refining, Dangote’s fertilizer investments are equally ambitious: its current urea production capacity in Nigeria stands at 3 million tonnes annually, with expansion plans underway in Nigeria and Ethiopia targeting a combined annual output of 12 million tonnes—leaping forward to match China’s early-1990s level.

Industrialization in sub-Saharan Africa

Tanzania is constructing the large-scale Julius Nyerere Hydropower Station, with a total installed capacity of 2,115 MW and an estimated annual electricity generation of 6.3 billion kWh. Dongfang Electric Corporation is responsible for both construction and full equipment supply for the station [37]. Commercial operation is scheduled to begin in June 2025. In addition, Tanzania is building smaller-scale photovoltaic and natural gas power plants. Recognizing that electricity supply will become a major bottleneck as industrialization advances, the Tanzanian government has also initiated a nuclear energy program—though still in its infancy, with actual construction not expected before the 2030s. Nigeria is prioritizing photovoltaic and natural gas power generation. It has already signed agreements with Chinese enterprises for three projects: a 3-GW gas-fired power plant, a 4-GW integrated wind-solar-hydro power project, and additional hydropower facilities—totaling 8 GW of installed capacity, equivalent to 2.4 times Nigeria’s current national electricity supply [38]. Among these, the Akwa Ibom Combined-Cycle Gas Power Plant features a total installed capacity of 3,000 MW, utilizing highly efficient gas-steam combined-cycle technology. Core generating equipment includes 12 Siemens SGT5-2000E gas turbines, 12 heat recovery steam generators supplied by XiZi Jieneng, and 6 Siemens SST-600 steam turbines [39]. Upon completion, the plant is projected to generate between 15 and 20 billion kWh annually. Like East African nations, Nigeria also has plans to develop nuclear energy. Other West African countries—such as Ghana—have already signed contracts for nuclear power plants. Currently, five countries—Russia, France, China, the United States, and South Korea—all possess nuclear reactor export capabilities, resulting in intense competition that benefits African nations through more favorable financing terms and lower costs. Overall, within approximately ten years, per capita annual electricity consumption in West and East Africa is expected to exceed 500 kWh—with some countries possibly surpassing 1,000 kWh, reaching levels comparable to China in the 1990s or India in 2010. 2. Petroleum Refining Infrastructure Gasoline is a critical energy source, accounting for roughly 30% of global primary energy consumption. Prior to the 2020s, although many sub-Saharan African countries were oil producers, their petroleum refining capacity was virtually negligible—forcing heavy reliance on imported refined fuels and draining foreign exchange reserves. In 2024, the Dangote Group’s petroleum refinery commenced operations in Nigeria’s Lekki Free Trade Zone. The project involved extensive participation by Chinese companies—not only in construction but also in supplying core equipment—though design work was jointly undertaken by the Dangote Group and an Indian firm. Its designed capacity is 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, with annual outputs of 850,000 tonnes of polypropylene and 500,000 tonnes of polyethylene resin, representing a total investment exceeding $19 billion. As the world’s largest single-site refinery, its commissioning ended Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported refined petroleum products and fundamentally reshaped Africa’s energy landscape [40]. Currently, Dangote plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day and increase annual polypropylene output from 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes [41]. Simultaneously, Dangote intends to build another refinery in East Africa—capable of processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day—to serve the entire East African market. The final location—Kenya or Tanzania—is still under consideration [42]. Once all these projects are completed, the Group’s total daily crude processing capacity will reach 2.05 million barrels—equivalent to approximately 100 million tonnes annually—matching China’s refining volume in 1990.

Kenya Court Lifts Halt on $16 Billion Dangote Refinery Project

Oct 14, 2026

A Kenyan court lifted a suspension on Aliko Dangote's $16 billion oil refinery project in Lamu, allowing construction to proceed despite ongoing legal challenges. The plant aims for commissioning in 2030 with plans for regional crude supply pipelines.

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Kenya Court Lifts Halt on $16 Billion Dangote Refinery Project

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