11 giraffes died in a protected area within one week; 2 million people face famine—climate change is devouring Kenya

Drought has further strained fiscal resources: whether it is transporting water manually into protected areas or intensifying anti-poaching and anti-smuggling patrols, rangers must work harder—yet the reserves cannot even guarantee stable salaries for them. In March this year, The Washington Post warned in a special report on Kenya’s protected areas that, if conditions do not improve in the short term, "three decades of conservation achievements will be wiped out overnight." The East African savanna—where Kenya is located—is one of the world’s most biodiverse regions for wildlife. Over recent decades, Kenya has built ecotourism into a pillar industry; ironically, this made it an unintended victim of global lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Xiao Ge told me that, to this day, most of his friends in Kenya have either lost their jobs or seen their businesses collapse; the few remaining survivors remain deeply pessimistic. Dorothy confirmed this view: due to successive waves of unemployment and business failures, most of her classmates—who graduated last year—still haven’t secured formal employment, a situation unprecedented in Kenya, previously the fastest-growing economy in East Africa. According to World Bank data, Kenya’s real GDP was estimated to contract by 0.3% in 2020, with growth driven primarily by agriculture. In 2021, although signs of recovery emerged across other economic sectors, tourism continued to face immense pressure, and overall economic prospects remained highly uncertain amid the pandemic, fiscal deterioration, and escalating climate-related disaster risks. Funding Gap At COP26 in early November, the unfulfilled climate finance commitments by developed countries became a shared concern among developing nations. Meanwhile, the “Climate Emergency Pact” initiative launched by the Climate Vulnerable Forum also drew widespread attention—but by the conference’s conclusion, concrete mechanisms and terms for these funds remained unresolved. As Sabuli Reserve stated in its email to me, the outcomes of COP26 were still deeply disappointing: "Policymakers have not truly treated climate change as a crisis—but it absolutely is one." In Kenya, the crisis is infiltrating everyone’s daily life. In Dorothy’s community, the price per liter of cooking oil has risen by approximately USD 2 since January, and an increasing number of food items have become unaffordable. She pins her hopes on President Kenyatta’s upcoming re-election campaign and its active outreach: "People in the north will receive food—though perhaps not enough, at least some will arrive." Shalmark ran another calculation for me: hiring a 10,000-liter water tanker costs about USD 536 (KES 60,000, roughly RMB 3,400) per day. Such tankers can cover a radius of approximately 300 kilometers in one day and currently serve as the primary water source for both local communities and wildlife. Yet this “money-burning” approach allows reserves to sustain operations for no more than forty days. Beyond water, however, how to maintain the vegetation upon which herbivores like giraffes depend remains an unsolved problem. In its October 2021 report on Wajir County, Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) rated both “agriculture-pasture” and “pasture” categories at the “alarm” level—with future trends still projected to worsen.

World Bank Group’s climate finance and investment strategy and outlook

Currently, as a major global multilateral development institution, the World Bank Group has formulated multiple policies and investment strategies related to climate finance and investment, and is actively advancing project implementation. Based on our analysis of its financing and investment strategies and practices, we draw the following conclusions and outlook: First, the World Bank Group’s climate finance and investment volume will increase significantly, enhancing the quality and effectiveness of climate projects. Between 2015 and 2020, climate finance and investment by the Group’s two main subsidiaries—the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—rose from USD 6.497 billion to USD 17.228 billion, an increase of 165%, accounting for 29% of its total financing and investment. Under its Climate Change Action Plan, the Group aims to allocate 35% of its funding to climate-related initiatives between 2021 and 2025—a roughly one-third increase over the 26% target set for 2016–2020. This higher climate finance share will further drive overall scale growth, providing financial support and diversified financing channels for climate projects in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, the World Bank’s technical assistance will help enhance the quality and impact of climate projects. Second, the World Bank Group is prioritizing climate adaptation development, potentially encouraging other regions and institutions to place greater emphasis on climate-resilient projects. In January 2021, the first Global Adaptation Summit convened, focusing on two critical challenges in responding to the climate crisis: first, the need for countries to implement more adaptation measures to reduce climate risks and strengthen local resilience; second, the severe shortage of climate finance in low- and middle-income countries, requiring increased contributions from developed countries and multilateral development banks to build adaptation capacity—and necessitating tailored adaptation financing plans for such countries. Responding proactively to the summit’s call, the World Bank Group is setting an example in promoting climate adaptation and addressing the climate crisis. On one hand, it is raising the share of adaptation projects: in 2020, adaptation projects accounted for over 50% of its climate portfolio for the first time; its Climate Change Action Plan further states that, between 2021 and 2025, 35% of its funding will go toward climate-related activities, half of which will specifically target strengthening resilience to climate change. On the other hand, at the macro-research level, the Group publishes numerous reports to guide countries in developing and refining policy frameworks that incentivize private-sector investment in adaptation; at the project level, it is strengthening results-based management and establishing relevant indicators to better assess the climate impact of its funded projects. Third, the World Bank Group is advancing climate finance and investment through enhanced collaboration with partner organizations—offering valuable experience for other development finance institutions. At the end of 2017, during the One Planet Summit, all multilateral development banks and members of the International Development Finance Club jointly issued their first declaration aligning financial operations with the Paris Agreement and committing to deepen cooperation in climate-related fields to support national climate project financing. The World Bank Group collaborates with governments and major financial institutions worldwide to develop diverse climate finance instruments and platforms—for instance, its subsidiary, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), partnered with Amundi to launch the “Green Cornerstone Bond Fund,” expanding funding sources for climate-related projects; the Group co-established the Invest4Climate platform with the United Nations and other partners to systematically mobilize multi-channel financing for climate projects; and it also collaborates with the International Trade Union Confederation through analytical research to support coal phase-out efforts and advance the energy transition.

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