Analysis of the Latest Russia-Ukraine War Situation as of 5:00 AM on July 15, 2026 (Text Version)!

1. According to AFP, at 00:16 local time on the 14th, journalists in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, heard密集 explosions, followed shortly by air-raid sirens across the city. Kyiv’s Military Administration Head, Oleksiy Tkačenko, posted on social media that Russian forces were launching missile strikes against Kyiv and urged residents to take protective measures. 2. Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Iran has never violated the Memorandum of Understanding previously signed with the United States. Iran will suspend its obligations under the memorandum until the U.S. fully implements all agreed-upon commitments. Additionally, Iran’s Foreign Minister first endorsed the U.S. military’s proposal to charge 20% of the cargo value from commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, then added that Iran’s earlier proposal to impose such fees was also justified. 3. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated he had asked former U.S. President Trump—via the White House—to urge Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian infrastructure and oil refineries, effectively calling for mutual cessation of deep-strike operations. However, Putin recently declared Russia opposes such mutual restraint, asserting that Russia’s retaliatory deep-strike operations inside Ukrainian territory are more powerful, lethal, and—frankly—more destructive, inflicting severe consequences on the Kyiv regime. This is for reference only. 4. According to CNN, President Trump told Fox News in a phone interview yesterday that the U.S. plans to assume control of the Strait of Hormuz as its 'guardian' and levy a 20% fee on all cargo passing through. He complained that the U.S. had long safeguarded this waterway free of charge, while other nations have grown wealthy—and thus cannot expect the U.S. to continue providing such services gratis. In plain terms: the U.S. previously provided security for free but now intends to collect protection fees. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf states that cooperation with the U.S. would constitute an act of war. Trump countered by declaring the strait open and claiming, 'Last night, we heavily bombed them.' With both sides issuing contradictory statements, whether the strait remains open has become a classic 'Rashomon' situation. 5. According to Fox News, during the interview, Trump dismissed mainstream media reports suggesting Iran retains significant resistance capacity. He claimed Iran’s navy, air force, air defense systems, and top commanders have all been effectively eliminated. He then added, intriguingly: 'Khamenei is gone, and his son is 90% gone too.' This marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei’s likely death—though '90% gone' does not necessarily imply biological death, it certainly indicates he is no longer capable of exercising supreme authority. 6. According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), in order to…

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The Kremlin issued a statement declaring that Russian forces are now striking all targets within visual range. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, 'The Russian Federation is not striking all targets—we began doing so only after the Ukrainians themselves opened Pandora’s box.' This explains Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on Ukraine—targeting not only military installations but also civilian infrastructure and non-combatants. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues its methodical long-range strikes against Russia—but unlike Russia, Ukraine restricts its attacks exclusively to Russian military targets and facilities directly supporting military operations. Early yesterday, Ukrainian forces struck the Nizhnekamsk Refinery in Tatarstan and the Slavyansk Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Faced with persistent targeted strikes—and lacking sufficient air-defense coverage—Russian refineries have adopted unconventional countermeasures: installing protective netting over critical equipment and storage tanks, and, as satellite imagery reveals, stacking shipping containers around key facilities to serve as makeshift blast walls and firebreaks. Objectively speaking, these measures offer limited effectiveness—they do not prevent Ukrainian drone strikes. Critical refinery infrastructure remains highly vulnerable, and Ukrainian drones carry not only high-explosive warheads but also advanced munitions such as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) and tandem-charge warheads. Rather than attempting to completely destroy Russian refineries via aerial bombardment, Ukraine aims instead to inflict sustained production halts or drastic output reductions—a strategy proving highly effective. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that due to persistent Ukrainian drone strikes and difficulties in conducting repairs, Russia’s refining capacity continues to decline. The IEA has downgraded Russia’s refining capacity to approximately 4 million barrels per day—about 30% lower than pre-war (2022) levels. The IEA further noted that the actual challenges confronting Russia’s refining sector may be even more severe. While the Kremlin denies or downplays the severity of this refining-capacity decline, U.S. President Trump—across the Atlantic—has grown visibly alarmed. In his interview, Trump publicly demanded Ukraine cease attacking Russian refineries: 'Zelenskyy must do one thing: stop striking diesel production and refining facilities inside Russia. He may strike other targets, but not diesel facilities—because these attacks are causing diesel shortages…'

Kremlin welcomes Trump's call on Ukraine to halt strikes on diesel facilities

Sep 14, 2026

The Kremlin welcomed President Trump's call for Ukraine to cease attacks on Russian diesel infrastructure amid domestic fuel shortages. Ukrainian strikes on refineries have significantly impacted Russia's gasoline and diesel production, contributing to global market concerns.

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