The right-wing candidate Le Pen currently leads opinion polls for the 2027 French presidential election. If she were actually elected, how would this affect France’s politics and economy?

Views on welfare: Both the far-right and the left advocate expanding welfare benefits for French citizens—even at the cost of significantly increasing public debt; the ruling party, by contrast, prioritizes debt control and advocates modestly scaling back welfare—for example, gradually raising the statutory retirement age from 62 to 64. Views on public security: The far-right advocates strengthening law enforcement, deporting refugees, and closing certain high-risk mosques to reduce crime; Mélenchon proposes tackling crime’s root causes through left-wing, pragmatic policies—such as wealth redistribution, equitable access to education, and stronger protections for workers’ rights—to alleviate structural social pressures; the ruling coalition, meanwhile, leans toward the far-right’s stance on security but lacks the capacity to act decisively. 2. Why Le Pen’s support has surged so markedly The French public currently faces three major grievances: immigration, public security, and declining real purchasing power—and Le Pen’s proposed solutions to these three issues resonate most strongly with the majority of French citizens. On immigration, Le Pen explicitly pledges to restrict immigration and forcibly deport undocumented migrants. What is the general French public view on immigration—especially illegal immigration? According to a recent poll conducted last year by CSA for CNEWS, Europe 1, and Le Journal du Dimanche (JDD), 75% of respondents believe that marriage should be prohibited when one spouse is an undocumented migrant. Clearly, Le Pen’s hardline stance on immigration enjoys broader public appeal. On public security, Le Pen explicitly advocates bolstering law enforcement capabilities and methods. How do French citizens feel about this? Odoxa once polled public opinion on installing AI-powered surveillance cameras ahead of the Paris Olympics: 89%, 88%, 81%, and 74% of respondents respectively supported their use inside venues, around venues, in public transport systems, and on public roads. This demonstrates that Le Pen’s position on security aligns closely with majority sentiment. Declining real purchasing power stems from rising inflation coupled with stagnant or falling incomes and reduced welfare benefits. Le Pen proposes cutting VAT on energy products to curb inflation and scrapping Macron’s pension reform to restore the previous retirement age. No polling data is needed here—the French public would almost certainly endorse both measures. Among France’s three main political blocs, Mélenchon’s left-wing alliance loses ground on immigration and security; Macron’s ruling coalition falters not only on purchasing power but also—due to its weak implementation capacity—on security as well. Le Pen, however, scores points across all three issues—hence her sharp rise in the polls. 3. Le Pen’s potential presidency would bring deeper internal change than external upheaval Although Le Pen holds views on NATO, the EU, and the Russia-Ukraine war that differ from Macron’s current administration, after repeated electoral defeats, her positions on these three issues have shifted away from radical proposals like withdrawal, toward advocating gradual reform instead. Consider Italian Prime Minister Meloni—a fellow far-right leader: even if Le Pen becomes president, France’s foreign policy is unlikely to undergo dramatic short-term shifts. At most, she would leverage France’s influence to push for EU reform—and would likely seek to initiate such reforms immediately.

Mass protests have erupted across France, just six months before the 2027 presidential election. How might this event affect the upcoming election?

Since the outbreak of large-scale unrest, Le Pen’s probability of winning the presidency has risen from 40% to over 50%— Most French citizens prioritize three things: (1) welfare security, (2) social stability, and (3) moral superiority. The establishment camp led by Macron currently delivers none of these. The left-wing ‘caravan’ led by Mélenchon promises priorities (1) and (3), but addresses the demand for social stability mainly by repeating slogans like “Once social fairness is achieved, public security will naturally improve.” By contrast, the right-wing bloc led by Le Pen openly prioritizes (1) and (2); as for moral superiority? ‘France First’ itself constitutes a moral claim. In a fully independent election, Le Pen would win decisively; other candidates can only surpass her by forming a united front. This recent wave of unrest has triggered widespread public suspicion that the French left is secretly orchestrating the protests—and has confirmed—at least in the short term—that the left is incapable of resolving security problems. Moreover, tensions between the left and the establishment camp have deepened further as each side blames the other for the unrest. Both developments are advantageous for Le Pen.

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