What are the emerging trends in global oil and gas exploration and development?

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie recently released a report forecasting new trends in global oil and gas exploration, development, and asset M&A. The number of frontier deepwater exploration wells will increase, with oil companies and resource-rich countries jointly striving to expand the area available for exploration. In 2025, the number of high-impact deepwater exploration wells will rise moderately compared to 2024. The strategic importance of conventional exploration is reviving—particularly along Africa’s Atlantic margin and in the Eastern Mediterranean. Along Africa’s Atlantic margin south of the Sahara, the Orange Basin in Namibia serves as the core area, while high-risk exploration wells span South Africa, West Africa, and Northwest Africa—including Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, São Tomé and Príncipe, Angola, and Senegal. Since the discovery of the Zohr gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean in 2015, no major new discoveries have been made in Egypt or Cyprus. To accelerate commercialization, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell will deploy new frontier exploration wells in the Herodotus Basin; Eni and BP will drill along the eastern and western margins of the Nile Delta. Additionally, new exploration wells will be drilled following recent oil discoveries in Guyana and Suriname, and gas discoveries in Indonesia. Through direct negotiations, joint study agreements, and traditional tendering processes, international oil companies are expected to secure additional exploration acreage—focusing on Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Angola, and Liberia along Africa’s Atlantic margin, as well as offshore Middle East and Indonesia’s underexplored eastern basins. Meanwhile, resource-rich governments eager for oil and gas investment will pursue exploration funding through multiple avenues—including enhanced incentives or reduced tax rates, and more attractive fiscal terms. Governments in Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Angola, and Argentina are streamlining regulatory procedures to expedite seismic surveys and drilling permits, facilitating rapid exploration by oil companies. Namibia and Equatorial Guinea have directly invited exploration companies, offering additional exploration blocks. International upstream operators continue optimizing development efficiency, seeking resource access—including unconventional resources—to achieve sustainable growth. Focusing on efficiency is not new, but novel tools—such as artificial intelligence (AI)—are enabling cost optimization. ExxonMobil has applied data science and AI in the Permian Basin, executing plans faster than anticipated and lowering the shale oil breakeven point by 20%. Unconventional new-well costs in the U.S. will continue declining, resetting industry-wide efficiency expectations. Beyond conventional oil and gas exploration, oil companies will seek resource access—including unconventional resources—to ensure sustainability. Breakthrough progress in unconventional oil and gas development outside the U.S. is underway: Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play are accelerating development; Algeria represents another promising shale gas opportunity, attracting strong investment interest from Chevron and ExxonMobil. Although current unconventional investment remains concentrated in the U.S., by 2030, countries including Canada, Algeria, Argentina, China, and Saudi Arabia are expected to drive rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas production. Natural gas remains the dominant focus, with “energy super-basins” possessing large resource potential becoming key exploration targets. In 2025, over half of all appraisal wells drilled will target natural gas discoveries for reserve evaluation.

Major news! Indonesia opens 100 oil and gas blocks—Southeast Asia’s offshore engineering ‘blue ocean’ market officially launches.

3. Offshore FPSO CCS retrofits: A $500-million存量 market launches Indonesia’s 2023 Regulation on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Implementation in the Upstream Oil and Gas Sector mandates that all producing offshore oil fields install carbon capture facilities by 2030. Currently, Indonesia operates 15 FPSOs—all offshore—with eight having served over ten years. These require new carbon capture modules, CO₂ re-injection pipelines, and subsea storage monitoring systems. Industry estimates place the total offshore FPSO CCS retrofit market at approximately USD 500 million, with related tenders expected to launch progressively between 2026 and 2027. Medium-term (3–4 years): Concentrated release of offshore FPSO orders—projects leveraging existing infrastructure offer higher certainty. 1. Bintuni and Drawa blocks: Shared Tangguh LNG offshore infrastructure shortens development timeline by 1–2 years. In May 2026, BP, together with partners CNOOC and INPEX, signed agreements covering the Bintuni and Drawa blocks—both hybrid onshore-offshore areas where the offshore portion exceeds 80%. Critically, these blocks lie adjacent to BP’s operated Tangguh LNG project offshore infrastructure, enabling shared use of existing subsea pipelines, LNG export terminals, and offshore operational support systems. If exploration results prove favorable, development timelines could shorten by 1–2 years versus conventional offshore projects. The industry broadly expects that, if reserves are evaluated successfully in 2027, FPSO procurement tenders for both blocks may launch in 2028—representing an estimated total FPSO order value of USD 1.5–2.0 billion. This would become Indonesia’s largest offshore FPSO order since the Abadi project. 2. Pure offshore frontier basin blocks: Nine reserve projects likely to generate 3–4 FPSO orders. Among the 43 blocks currently in joint study phases, nine are pure offshore frontier basin blocks located in the Natuna Sea, Arafura Sea, and Sulawesi Sea. These have accumulated over ten years of pre-exploration data, and some have already shown preliminary hydrocarbon indications. With water depths ranging from 200 to 1,500 meters, successful exploration breakthroughs here are expected to yield 3–4 FPSO orders by around 2029, totaling USD 1.0–1.5 billion—forming the core growth driver for Indonesia’s deepwater offshore engineering sector. China’s offshore engineering firms: Precise opportunities aligned with Indonesia’s needs—cost-effectiveness + proven offshore project experience. For Chinese offshore engineering firms, the current timing aligns precisely with Indonesia’s core offshore project requirements: 1. FPSO construction and retrofit capability match: Chinese firms possess mature technical capabilities and cost advantages in FPSO hull construction, topside module integration, and retrofit upgrades. Beyond the Abadi project, Indonesia’s marginal-field small-FPSO retrofit demand also closely matches Chinese shipyards’ strengths. 2. Subsea equipment and offshore CCS technology advantages: Chinese firms offer highly competitive pricing and performance in subsea wellheads, submarine pipelines, subsea production systems, and offshore carbon capture modules. Their delivery speed exceeds that of Western and European manufacturers by over 30%, perfectly meeting Indonesian operators’ dual priorities of cost control and accelerated project execution. 3. Policy window opening: Since 2025, the Indonesian government has continuously introduced policies simplifying approval procedures for offshore oil and gas equipment procurement and eliminating numerous unreasonable entry restrictions targeting foreign offshore engineering suppliers. International oil companies operating offshore projects in Indonesia—including BP and INPEX—are actively expanding the share of Chinese suppliers in their supply chains. Engaging with operators now to join approved supplier shortlists can lock in future order opportunities.

Liberia offers 29 offshore blocks in 2026 oil and gas licensing round

17 hours ago

Liberia launched its 2026 oil and gas licensing round, offering 29 offshore blocks via direct negotiations to attract international investment. The initiative builds on a 2024 round where TotalEnergies and Oranto Petroleum secured contracts, highlighting potential in the Harper Basin.

reuters

2026-10-14

Liberia offers 29 offshore blocks in 2026 oil and gas licensing round

Liberia offers 29 offshore blocks in 2026 oil and gas licensing round

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