Surging by 67 billion RMB! Ganfeng Lithium’s bold ‘counter-cyclical’ bet pays off

The non-ferrous metals sector has surged dramatically, and mining enterprises’ earnings have collectively rebounded. Beneath this cyclical turnaround, expectations are rising that the prosperity cycle for non-ferrous metals will persist—especially for industrial metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum, whose price gains have far exceeded market expectations. No signs of cooling are yet visible amid the surge in non-ferrous metals. Beyond the sharp rallies in prices of gold, silver, and copper, energy metals such as lithium and nickel have also hit multi-year highs. According to relevant data, lithium carbonate prices have recently approached 190,000 RMB/ton—just shy of the 200,000 RMB threshold. Against this backdrop, lithium mining companies’ earnings have clearly turned upward, with leading lithium miners already showing marked improvement in their Q4 2025 results. On the evening of January 27, Ganfeng Lithium—the industry leader in lithium mining—released its full-year 2025 earnings forecast, announcing expected net profit of 1.1–1.65 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 153.04% to 179.56%; by contrast, it posted a net loss of 2.074 billion RMB in the same period last year. Its扣非 net profit (net profit excluding non-recurring gains/losses) is projected at a loss of 300–600 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 32.38% to 66.19%, compared to a loss of 887 million RMB in the prior-year period. Basic EPS is expected to range from 0.55 to 0.82 RMB per share. Driven by this explosive earnings performance, Ganfeng Lithium delivered an outstanding market performance in 2025. Statistics show its A-share price rose over 80% for the year, while its H-share price surged more than 160%. By calculation, its A-share market capitalization increased by nearly 59 billion RMB, and its H-share market cap grew by over 67 billion HKD. Notably, entering 2026, Ganfeng Lithium’s stock continued rising, supported by sustained strength in lithium carbonate prices. Li Liangbin—the company’s actual controller—has seen his personal wealth soar accordingly. According to equity tracing, Li holds approximately 18.41% of Ganfeng Lithium’s shares; based on the latest closing price, his stake is valued at roughly 28.7 billion RMB. Per the 2025 Hurun Rich List, Li ranks 356th with a fortune of 18 billion RMB. A Complete Earnings Turnaround Regarding the dramatic earnings surge, Ganfeng Lithium cited four main factors: First, during the reporting period, the appreciation of its equity investment in Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS) generated fair-value gains. After hedging under its pre-established collar option risk management strategy, the net fair-value gain totaled approximately 1.03 billion RMB. Second, pursuant to Accounting Standard No. 22 for Enterprises, the company designated its H-share-listed convertible corporate bonds as “financial liabilities measured at fair value, with changes recognized in profit or loss.” Due to the significant rise in the company’s share price and the exercise of conversion rights by the majority of bondholders, corresponding fair-value losses were recognized in the current period. Third, the company confirmed investment gains from transferring part of the equity in its subsidiary Shenzhen Yichu Intelligent Energy Group Co., Ltd. and successfully introducing strategic investors. Fourth, in accordance with Accounting Standard No. 8 for Enterprises, the company conducted impairment tests on assets exhibiting impairment indicators—including long-term assets—and accordingly recognized asset impairment provisions. Taken together, Ganfeng Lithium’s 2025 full-year earnings surge was primarily attributable to the 1.03 billion RMB in gains from equity investments (“stock trading”).

The lithium battery industry shows a V-shaped recovery! Shanshan, Tianqi, and Ganfeng follow markedly different paths to profitability

Compared with other materials segments mentioned above, fewer than 60% of separator companies reported improved performance. According to Wind data, among the seven lithium battery separator firms that disclosed 2025 earnings forecasts, four reported continued losses or profit declines, while only three reported profit increases or turnarounds. On a year-on-year basis, four companies achieved profit growth (including those narrowing losses), accounting for 57% of the total. Among them, industry leader Enjie Co., Ltd. turned profitable, forecasting 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of 109–164 million RMB. The “Dual Lithium Giants” Achieve Profitability Through Divergent Paths Meanwhile, recovering demand in the midstream materials segment has also enabled upstream lithium mining leaders Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium to achieve profitability. Per Tianqi Lithium’s 2025 earnings forecast, it expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 369–553 million RMB and扣非 net profit of 240–360 million RMB. In 2024, the company posted a net loss attributable to shareholders of 7.905 billion RMB. Tianqi Lithium attributed its 2025 turnaround to four interrelated factors: “(1) The pricing cycle for lithium spodumene concentrate produced by its subsidiary Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd has shortened, significantly reducing the timing mismatch between the pricing mechanisms for its wholly owned subsidiary Talison Lithium Pty Ltd’s chemical-grade spodumene concentrate and its own lithium chemical products—a mismatch that previously impacted cost structures. With newly purchased lithium concentrate progressively entering inventory and existing inventories gradually consumed, the cost of chemical-grade spodumene used across its lithium chemical production bases now closely reflects the most recent procurement prices. (2) Investment income from its associate SQM Company recognized during the reporting period increased substantially year-on-year. (3) Exchange rate fluctuations between the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar generated higher foreign exchange gains versus 2024. (4) Asset impairment losses recognized during the period declined versus 2024.” Tianqi Lithium’s profitability logic follows a “resource-first” strategy. As of mid-2025, its revenue composition stood at: lithium compounds and derivatives (50.54%), lithium ore (49.25%), and other businesses (0.21%). Public information indicates its resource base comprises the Greenbushes spodumene mine in Australia—owned by Talison Lithium Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd—and the Cuola spodumene mine in Ya’an, Sichuan Province, China—held by its subsidiary Shenghe Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. Additionally, through equity investments in SQM and parts of Zhaxi Zabuye Salt Lake, Tianqi has secured access to high-quality brine lithium resources at Chile’s Salar de Atacama and Tibet’s Zabuye Salt Lake. In contrast to Tianqi Lithium’s “resource-first” approach, Ganfeng Lithium pursues a diversified strategy spanning the entire lithium value chain—from lithium resource development and lithium compound production to battery manufacturing and recycling. As of mid-2025, Ganfeng’s revenue breakdown was: lithium series products (56.78%), lithium battery series products (35.52%), and other core business revenues (7.7%). Per Ganfeng Lithium’s latest 2025 earnings forecast, it expects net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1–1.65 billion RMB, while扣非 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at –600 to –300 million RMB.

Lithium Miner PLS Markets $700 Million Bond in Expansion Push

20 hours ago

PLS Group Ltd aims to raise $700 million via junk bonds to double capacity at its Pilgangoora lithium mine. The move occurs amidst falling metal prices and tight credit markets, though Moody’s assigns a Ba3 grade citing downside risks.

bloomberg

2026-10-20

Lithium Miner PLS Markets $700 Million Bond in Expansion Push

Lithium Miner PLS Markets $700 Million Bond in Expansion Push

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