Why did German net gas imports fall sharply in July, and what does this indicate about storage incentives?

German net gas imports fell by 24% year on year in July to 4.46 bcm, driven by reduced pipeline and LNG supply due to weak commercial incentives — specifically, unfavorable price spreads that made importing and injecting gas unprofitable. Traders noted that 'spreads are against it, so you need to lose money to inject', and some LNG-terminal slots were left unused because tight delivered ex-ship LNG discounts to TTF failed to cover terminal, transport, and storage costs; in some cases, keeping LNG in floating storage was cheaper than delivering and injecting it.

What is the projected state of German gas storage by 1 November, and how does current injection progress compare to what’s needed to meet that target?

ICIS Gas Foresight projects German gas stocks will reach 71% full by 1 November — slightly above the 70% national target — down from a prior projection of 73%; to achieve this, Germany needs approximately 5.08 bcm of additional injections from its 11 August level (49.2% full), requiring an average injection rate of ~63 mcm/day through October, but the early-August pace of 46 mcm/day was about 35% below that required rate.

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German net gas imports fell 24% year-on-year in July due to unfavorable price spreads, leaving storage at a record seasonal low of 49.2%. ICIS projects stocks at 71% by November, slightly above targets but below previous forecasts.

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Low gas imports increase German winter supply exposure

Low gas imports increase German winter supply exposure

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