Venezuela's economic reforms have made some progress, but its democratic transition remains to be seen.

“It feels like a clog in the sewer has been cleared,” whispered a construction worker in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital. For most people, seeing Nicolás Maduro—the man who condoned torture, rigged elections, and wrecked the economy—sent to a prison in New York was deeply satisfying. Yet the celebrations were muted. The regime remains in power. Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, has taken over under Donald Trump’s backing, with Trump claiming she is acting on his instructions. Nonetheless, four in five Venezuelans think the political situation will be better within a year. This optimism stems from Ms. Rodríguez’s moves to improve the economy, coupled with faith in Mr. Trump’s resolve. “Today, I can assure Venezuelans that the transition to democracy will take place,” said María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, on January 28th after meeting with Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State. Any shift to democracy will take time, but many are eager to understand now if Ms. Machado is right. That means assessing the seriousness of the Trump administration and the vulnerability of Ms. Rodríguez and her cronies. A democratic Venezuela would pose existential danger to the regime she now leads.

Increasingly subservient Chavistas

Until last year, these provisions were the most naked manifestation of American imperialist ambition—and Donald Trump has since reshaped and expanded the rules governing the survival of client states. At two o’clock in the morning on the third day of the new year, explosions and the roar of fighter jets echoed over Caracas. Citing a purported right to arbitrarily overthrow the leaders of sovereign nations, the United States arrested Nicolás Maduro Moros—the de facto president of Venezuela—and his wife, Cilia Flores—shattering, once and for all, the foundational principles of peaceful coexistence among nations. On January 3rd, the couple was already being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. Maduro, already absurd in demeanor, was captured wearing a bizarre headpiece resembling a hat—uncannily reminiscent of Disney’s Goofy. Journalists rushed to Mar-a-Lago, unsure how to frame questions about this warlike act—unauthorized by Congress and tantamount to kidnapping—(which the Trump administration dubbed “an evacuation operation”). The whole episode was surreal, foolish, and terrifying—so unbelievable, until one recalls what the Platt Amendment reveals about America’s self-perception. For weeks, we witnessed the largest naval and air deployment around the sun-drenched Caribbean islands in decades. Many foolishly assumed the U.S. merely intended to linger there, playing the role of a superpower at taxpayers’ expense, pressuring Maduro to resign. But that was not the case: the Trump administration was both deadly serious and recklessly impulsive—the image of Maduro wearing that ridiculous headpiece being the clearest proof. María Corina Machado, the staunch leader of Venezuela’s conservative opposition and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, also helped fuel this catastrophe. In the months leading up to the July 2024 presidential election, her polling numbers surged dramatically—prompting the Venezuelan government to bar her from running. Undeterred, Machado nominated the elderly politician Edmundo González as her stand-in candidate. According to virtually all credible observers, González easily defeated Maduro on election day. Maduro—a handpicked successor of former President Hugo Chávez—has ruled since 2013, yet declared himself the victor. This move was blatantly illegal—but unsurprising—and appeared only to reinforce Machado’s long-held conviction that a peaceful democratic transition is impossible. In the first days of Trump’s second term, she spoke with her longtime acquaintance and newly appointed Secretary of State, Rubio. Rubio, a foreign policy expert and old-school anti-communist, harbors a particular animosity toward Cuba’s collapsing socialist regime—and toward Venezuela, Cuba’s longtime ally and fuel supplier. Machado insisted that Maduro would never allow fair elections; that he is an illegitimate president destroying Venezuela and must be removed—even by force, if necessary. After the election, she went into cautious hiding, but in online interviews she stated that, if she became president, she would open Venezuela’s doors to foreign investment—especially to foreign oil companies, most of which had been expelled from Venezuela by Chávez in 2007.

Machado Returns to Venezuela to Urge Democratic Transition

6 days ago

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Caracas, challenging the interim government amidst US-backed political talks. The move complicates Washington's strategy, which includes rebuilding Venezuela's oil industry and accessing 65 billion barrels of crude reserves.

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Machado Returns to Venezuela to Urge Democratic Transition

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