What are Macquarie's revised Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and how do they compare to its previous projections?

Macquarie slashed its Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to an average of $77 a barrel, down from its prior projection of $89 a barrel; for 2027, it cut the outlook to $64 a barrel from $74 a barrel. This downward revision reflects the bank’s expectation of a rapid recovery in oil flows from the Middle East following the interim US–Iran peace deal, which has enabled oil shipments to resume from the Persian Gulf.

According to Macquarie, what key factors explain why oil prices remained relatively low despite the historic supply shock?

Macquarie attributes the relatively low oil prices amid the historic shock to three interlinked factors: (1) the market was already oversupplied before the war; (2) demand destruction occurred; and (3) there were potential lower visibility inventory draws — all of which collectively helped bridge the gap created by lost supplies.

Macquarie Slashes Brent Forecast, Sees Rapid Recovery of Flows

Jun 23, 2026

Macquarie Group reduced its 2026 and 2027 Brent crude price forecasts to $77 and $64 per barrel, expecting quicker normalization of oil flows from the Middle East after a US-Iran interim peace deal.

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