Europe is preparing for Ukraine's protracted war but lacks a strategy to end it.

Europe has further strengthened its support for Ukraine through two additional rounds of sanctions targeting Russia and its economic interests—including its oil exports via the 'shadow fleet.' The 20th round of sanctions was approved this Thursday, after having been blocked since February by Slovakia and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—who lost his bid for re-election in this month’s parliamentary elections. Officials have already begun drafting the 21st round of sanctions to counter Russia’s evolving evasion tactics. Several European officials stated that Europe hopes Russian President Vladimir Putin will eventually recognize that Moscow has already achieved the maximum gains possible in Ukraine and should therefore 'stop while ahead' and engage seriously in negotiations to end the conflict. Yet they also acknowledge that Putin prefers dealing with Washington—not Brussels. Thus, Europe would welcome renewed substantive U.S. involvement—pressuring Putin to make concessions, rather than merely pressuring Zelenskyy. With European financial backing, Ukraine currently retains the resources and capacity to sustain the war for the foreseeable future. Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, noted that Ukraine 'does not need to reach an agreement under any conditions this year.' The frontline situation may shift, but Ukraine has generally responded well. He said: 'It appears Russia will not achieve substantive gains, yet will incur enormous losses for minimal returns.' Meanwhile, Moscow’s economic pressure has been somewhat alleviated by rising energy prices. Therefore, he believes neither side currently feels sufficient pressure to push for an immediate ceasefire. Ukraine has achieved some success in striking Russian oil infrastructure. But the problem lies with Europe: 'We lack a theory of Ukrainian victory,' said Claudia Major, defense expert at the German Marshall Fund. The original idea was to exert enough pressure on Russia to alter its strategic calculus—but 'we never gave Ukraine sufficient support to achieve that,' she said. 'Now we’re simply trying to keep Ukraine in the fight, waiting for something to change inside Moscow—someone dying, being overthrown, or the economy collapsing,' she added. 'But that’s not a strategy.' Zelenskyy has expressed anger toward the United States, accusing it of continuing to accommodate Putin’s demands. He has actively sought new diplomatic and military partners—for instance, sharing drone technology with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, and forging weapons-production partnerships with the UK and Germany. He has also sharply criticized Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil production to lower global energy prices, stating: 'In my view, Russia has once again deceived the United States—and the U.S. president.' He said he had resisted pressure from unnamed quarters (implying Washington) to halt strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Just this Monday, he criticized Trump’s chief negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for planning another visit to Moscow soon—without ever having visited Kyiv. He told Ukrainian television ICTV: 'Going to Moscow without going to Kyiv is disrespectful—purely disrespectful.'

The front line in Ukraine is fraught with instability.

The Lviv attack appears part of an increasingly intense campaign aimed at paralyzing Ukraine’s power grid, energy infrastructure, and industrial capacity. Of course, Russia has targeted these assets for years—but these new operations suggest Moscow is now pursuing an endgame. Moscow seeks to conclude the conflict. President Zelenskyy, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz spoke by phone with President Trump during a meeting of European officials in Tirana, Albania, on May 16, 2025. The Kremlin has gone to extraordinary lengths to secure a mutually beneficial conclusion to its 'special military operation' and its broader confrontation with the West. You can trace this back to spring 2022, when we were prepared to sign an agreement with Kyiv just months after the war began—but the UK, with U.S. consent, vetoed it. Or to December 2021, when Russia submitted draft treaties to Washington and NATO as the basis for negotiations on a new security framework between the Russian Federation and the West. They were dismissed as 'irrelevant'—a clever British phrase the Biden administration apparently found witty. Or to the Minsk Protocols of September 2014 and February 2015, which the UK and France undermined. Or even further back—to the early 1990s, when Gorbachev hoped to integrate post-Soviet Russia into a 'common European home.' 'The Kremlin has gone to extraordinary lengths to secure a mutually beneficial conclusion to its “special military operation” and its broader confrontation with the West.' Throughout all this, the Kremlin has displayed exceptional restraint—even steadfastness. It would be mistaken to conclude that the Russians have lost patience. No—in my view, they have simply concluded there is no longer any need to sit idly by while major Western powers indulge in farcical domestic politics—or, more aptly, some form of collective self-gratification they appear to find satisfying. And they are doing so publicly. Over the past several weeks at year-end, we repeatedly read about intensive diplomatic efforts involving Kyiv, European countries, and the Trump administration’s delegation. These 'swordsmen' drafted a 20-point peace plan intended to replace Trump’s 28-point document. Ukraine’s unconstitutional president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shuttled from one European capital to Washington, then to Mar-a-Lago, and back to Europe—consistently claiming he and his supporters had 'completed 90% of the task.' This '90%' claim rests on security guarantees permitting European troops to serve as peacekeepers inside Ukraine. It refers to territorial solutions—and so on. You watch all this, dumbfounded. None of it relates to crafting even a preliminary negotiable agreement with Moscow. The intent behind the 20-point plan is precisely to overturn the 28-point plan—the first document since the spring of 2022 that Moscow appears to consider worth its time.

Macron and Trump Discuss Halting Energy Strikes Between Kyiv and Moscow

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French President Macron and Donald Trump discussed halting energy strikes in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, citing rising diesel prices and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil pipelines. France plans to secure Red Sea export routes to prevent escalation.

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