Momenta’s revenue surged 76% in the first half of the year, but its net loss increased more than eightfold year-on-year.

Mass-production business is the core driver behind Momenta’s revenue growth. As of June 30, 2026, over 1.1 million vehicles equipped with Momenta’s systems have entered mass production, covering a cumulative total of 105 production vehicle models and over 230 awarded models. During the reporting period, approximately 321,000 new vehicles were added—up 83.7% year-on-year. Delivery efficiency has also improved dramatically: the first 100,000 units took 24 months to deliver, whereas the most recent 100,000 units required only 36 days. In terms of market position, according to data from CIC Insight Consulting, Momenta held approximately a 65% market share in China’s third-party urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) supplier market from March 2025 to February 2026—ranking first. The company has established partnerships with 26 automakers globally, and its mass-production solutions have been deployed across more than 10 countries and regions—including Asia, Europe, Oceania, Latin America, and North Africa. Sharp rise in net loss—stock-based compensation widens financial gap Although adjusted metrics look strong, the IFRS-based net loss for the period reached RMB 16.537 billion—up 871.8% from RMB 1.702 billion in the same period last year. This massive loss stems primarily from non-cash items such as share-based compensation expenses recognized during the IPO process. Even excluding this factor, Momenta’s historical losses remain substantial: net losses totaled RMB 2.57 billion, RMB 3.206 billion, and RMB 3.458 billion in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively—amounting to a cumulative loss of RMB 9.234 billion over three years. Intensifying competition, customer concentration, and L4 commercialization uncertainty Behind the strong financial figures, Momenta still faces multiple challenges. First, industry competition continues to intensify. With L2 ADAS penetration already exceeding 70% and steadily expanding into lower price segments, price competition among third-party intelligent driving suppliers is growing increasingly fierce. Whether scale effects can offset pressures from intensified competition and downward pricing will directly determine the sustainability of the company’s high gross margin. Second, customer concentration risk remains significant. In 2025, the top five customers accounted for 62.6% of Momenta’s revenue—indicating heavy reliance on a small number of leading automakers. Although the company has partnered with 26 automakers, customer concentration remains an ongoing financial risk requiring close monitoring. Third, R&D investment pressure remains heavy. In the first half of the year, Momenta’s R&D expenditure reached RMB 1.16 billion—representing 72.6% of revenue—and R&D personnel accounted for 79.1% of total headcount. Although the R&D expense ratio declined sharply from 45.7% in the prior year to 0.9%, the absolute amount continues to grow. Additionally, commercialization of L4 autonomous driving services—including Robotaxi—remains in its early stages. The company plans to launch its first mass-produced Robotaxi in Q4 2026 and deploy hundreds of units domestically and internationally by year-end.

U.S. stock earnings report — MRVL (Marvell Technology), fiscal year ending March 6, 2026.

• [High Risk] Custom silicon margin pressure — If custom silicon accounts for over 50% of revenue, overall gross margin could fall below 57%, negatively impacting valuation multiples. • [High Risk] Customer concentration — Top three customers (Amazon/Google/Microsoft) account for over 60% of data center revenue; any adjustment to their plans would have a major impact. • [Medium Risk] AI capital expenditure cyclicality — If hyperscalers slow AI investment in 2027–2028, growth could decelerate sharply. • [Medium Risk] Competition — Broadcom is more mature in custom silicon; NVIDIA is developing in-house networking chips; AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx strengthens its FPGA positioning. • [Low Risk] Acquisition integration — Integration of Celestial AI and XConn technologies, along with talent retention, requires time. V. Valuation and Scenario Analysis 5.1 Revenue Outlook 5.2 Scenario Analysis Scenario FY2028E Revenue ($B) Non-GAAP EPS P/E Multiple Target Price Return Bull 16.0 $5.50 30x $165 +118% Base 14.0 $4.50 25x $110 +45% Bear 11.0 $3.30 18x $60 −21% 5.3 Base Case Derivation FY2027E revenue: $11B (+34%) → FY2028E revenue: $14B (+27%, driven by custom silicon doubling) Non-GAAP gross margin ~58% → Operating expense ratio ~28% → Non-GAAP operating margin ~30% Non-GAAP net income ~$4.2B → EPS ~$4.50 × 25x P/E = $112.5 ≈ $110 Bull case requires: (1) stronger-than-expected custom silicon growth + new customer wins; (2) accelerated expansion of the optical interconnect TAM; (3) rapid adoption of Ethernet-based AI networks replacing InfiniBand. Bear case triggers: AI capex slowdown + gross margin falling below 57% + realization of customer concentration risk. 5.4 Annual Performance Overview 5.5 Positioning Recommendation Risk Profile Recommended Allocation Rationale Aggressive 5–8% One of the purest AI infrastructure plays, powered by dual engines: custom silicon + optical interconnects Balanced 3–5% 30%+ growth justifies a reasonable and slightly undervalued P/E of 24.7x Conservative 1–3% Margin pressure and customer concentration are concerns—but AI trend remains highly certain 5.6 Catalyst Timeline Time Catalyst Impact May 2026 Q1 FY2027 Earnings (revenue ~$2.4B confirmed) Positive — Validates growth trajectory H1 2026 Celestial AI technology integration / product launch Positive — Validates CPO capabilities H2 2026 Announcement of new custom silicon customers Key — Signals TAM expansion 2026–2027 UEC Ethernet standard release / large-scale deployment Positive — Drives switch chip demand

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