What are Mexico's projected GDP growth rate and public sector deficit for 2027, according to the draft budget?

Mexico's finance ministry projects economic growth of between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2027, while the broader public sector deficit is forecast to narrow to 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), as stated in the draft budget proposal submitted to Congress.

How does the 2027 outlook for Mexico's economy differ from the revised 2026 forecast, and what key factors support the 2027 projection?

The 2026 growth estimate was revised downward to 1.0%–2.0%, from an earlier projection of 1.8%–2.8%, while the 2027 outlook is driven primarily by solid domestic demand, higher household incomes, less restrictive financial conditions, and investment tied to infrastructure projects and tax incentives under the 'Plan Mexico' initiative; additional support is expected from export growth backed by North American trade integration.

Mexico Forecasts Up to 2.5% Economic Growth in 2027, Narrower Deficit in Budget Draft

Sep 8, 2026

Mexico's finance ministry projects 1.5% to 2.5% economic growth in 2027 with a narrowed public deficit to 3.9% of GDP. The budget allocates $4.8 billion for Pemex debt repayment and forecasts crude oil exports averaging $61.80 per barrel.

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Mexico Forecasts Up to 2.5% Economic Growth in 2027, Narrower Deficit in Budget Draft

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