According to ICIS, how long is the petrochemical supply disruption from the Middle East conflict expected to last, and what are the two main recovery timelines cited?

ICIS analyst Antulio Borneo stated that under a three-month conflict scenario, full recovery — spanning oil exploration, logistics restoration, refinery restarts, and petrochemical plant resumptions — would take seven months, pushing normalization to January 2027 at the earliest; in the more severe six-month conflict scenario, recovery stretches to nine months, delaying a return to normal conditions to mid-2027.

Which key petrochemical products are disrupted from the Middle East, and why are plants shutting down?

The key products disrupted from the Middle East include methanol — the region’s largest export — along with ethylene glycol (EG), polyethylene (PE), and polypropylene (PP); plants are shuttered and workers evacuated across the region for safety reasons due to ongoing conflict, including drone attacks and military strikes even during announced ceasefires.

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