How has the Middle East war affected the timeline for the global LNG oversupply, according to BNEF?

According to BNEF, the Middle East war has delayed the onset of global LNG oversupply from 2027 to 2028 — a one-year postponement — due to damage to Qatar’s largest LNG export plant from Iranian missile strikes and the near-halt of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried one-fifth of the world’s LNG.

What are the key factors influencing Qatar’s future LNG supply growth, as cited by BNEF?

BNEF cites three key factors: the repair timeline for the two damaged production trains at Qatar’s LNG facility, the startup sequence of its six North Field expansion trains, and commercial strategy — including slower contracting post-war and QatarEnergy’s potential to leverage low production costs to accelerate volumes and compete more aggressively with US LNG in an oversupplied spot market.

Middle East War Set to Push Back LNG Glut by a Year, BNEF Says

Jul 14, 2026

BloombergNEF forecasts global LNG oversupply will shift to 2028 due to Middle East conflicts damaging Qatari infrastructure. While regional supply faces uncertainty, US exports remain poised to act as the market's swing supplier through 2035.

bloomberg

2026-07-14

Middle East War Set to Push Back LNG Glut by a Year, BNEF Says

Middle East War Set to Push Back LNG Glut by a Year, BNEF Says

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