Three Fifties and One Sixty: September PMI Re-Enters Expansion Territory, Yet Price Hikes Have Already Run Ahead

Sixty percent of enterprises are raising prices simultaneously—a signal far more significant than the mere amount by which any single commodity’s price has risen. Within the breakdown, there are three charts illustrating divergence—each far richer in information than the aggregate figure. The first chart: large versus small enterprises. Large enterprises’ PMI stands at 50.6%, solidly above the 50% threshold. Medium-sized enterprises: 49.7%; small enterprises: 48.9%. Though both are rebounding, they remain below the boom-bust line. The September recovery was driven primarily by large enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises still feel the chill. The second chart: sectoral differences. High-tech manufacturing: 52.5%—the strongest across all sectors. Equipment manufacturing: 51.0%; consumer goods industries: 50.7%—both above the threshold. Energy-intensive industries: 48.0%—still underwater. In services, telecom, finance, insurance, and business services all post business activity indices above 55%, indicating high prosperity. Yet capital market services and real estate remain mired at low levels. What’s hot is the new economy; what’s cold remains the old burdens. The third chart: construction. Construction’s business activity index stands at 50.3%, surging 3.4 percentage points month-on-month—the highest this year. Construction activity is clearly accelerating. But the new orders index for construction is only 45.7%. In plain terms: work on hand is increasing, but new orders have yet to catch up. Work has begun—but new contracts remain scarce. One additional point deserves special attention: the employment index stands at 48.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month. Business confidence is recovering; prices are rebounding—but hiring is not. Remember this number. It is the key to understanding everything that follows. Data is abstract. The following narrative transforms it into a story. You may call it: “The Journey of a Single Oil Molecule to Your Wallet.” First stop: oilfields in the Gulf. International oil prices have surged this year; WTI has already climbed to $94 per barrel. Middle East hostilities and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept prices elevated. JPMorgan’s latest estimate indicates Middle Eastern crude flows have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, with Hormuz Strait throughput returning to nearly 13 million barrels per day. Note this fine print: flow volume has recovered—but risk has not disappeared. Caution remains embedded in oil prices. Second stop: chemical plants. Crude oil enters; plastic pellets, synthetic fibers, and rubber emerge. Industries such as petroleum and coal processing and chemical raw materials saw their price indices jump directly above 60%. Raw material costs have risen substantially. Third stop: a small or medium-sized manufacturing enterprise. For example, an injection-molding factory in Zhejiang. The owner finds orders remain steady—the new orders index stands at 50.5%, unchanged. But plastic pellets are rising in price—and customers refuse to accept price hikes. Gross margins have shrunk from 12 percentage points to just 5. What does he do? Three actions: accept orders—but selectively; run fewer machines; and—this year—hire no new staff. Now revisit the employment index: 48.4%. Its flip side is millions upon millions of such micro-decisions. Fourth stop: your daily life. This cost pressure continues downstream—manifesting in higher fuel prices, courier fees, and airfares.

Only Three Ships Passed Through the Strait of Hormuz in One Day—So Why Has Middle Eastern Export Volume Recovered to 80%?

This question is harder to answer than the previous ten—because while quantities come with numbers, routing does not. And when a shipping corridor changes shape, the most expensive segment is rarely located along the corridor itself—it lies within the commodity the corridor transports. Data and factual sources: Crude oil prices: As of September 22, 2026, Brent closed at USD 97.69 per barrel (−2.64% intraday), marking its first drop below USD 100 since September 9; WTI closed at USD 89.41 (−3.20% intraday); gasoline futures fell 2.1%; heating oil fell 3.1% (per The National, citing UAE time 15:09; CNBC TV18 and FinancialMarkets reported alternative intraday figures—Brent at 98.77 (−1.56%), 97.60, and 99.75; WTI at 90.29 (−2.25%) and 93.80—reflecting different reporting times. This article adopts the 97.69/89.41 pair, explicitly noting the source, without averaging or conversion). Strait of Hormuz transit volume: On Monday, September 21, two commercial vessels were observed passing through (per The National, citing preliminary shipping data—not including vessels that disabled their Automatic Identification Systems); data released at 09:59 on Tuesday, September 23, showed three vessels passed through on that day, with a 10-day moving average of approximately 15 vessels (per Jinshi Data, corroborated by WallStreetCN’s same-timestamp report). Pre-war daily traffic stood at about 125 large commercial vessels (per Kpler, cited by Reuters). The phrase “roughly one-fortieth” derives from dividing 3 by 125 and rounding—this is a calculation, not a direct quote. Middle Eastern and Saudi export volumes: Saudi crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels per day over the six days from September 12–18, versus ~700,000 bpd in August (per JPMorgan, citing satellite data and cited by Reuters); total Middle Eastern crude flow over the past 10 days averaged ~17 million bpd—about 6 million bpd below the 2025 average (per JPMorgan); Middle Eastern exports have recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels (per TD Securities’ Head of Commodities Strategy—an institutional estimate). Saudi East-West Pipeline and Yanbu Port: Damaged and shut down following a drone attack on September 13 (per The National); FinancialMarkets recorded the incident on September 10—two conflicting accounts exist, so this article uses the phrasing “mid-September” and retains both dates in this section for transparency. The pipeline resumed operations at reduced capacity on September 22, with Yanbu port crude exports expected to resume the same day (per Reuters, citing three informed sources). The pipeline spans 1,200 km and operates at full capacity of ~7 million bpd—of which ~2 million bpd supplies domestic refineries. On September 20, Aramco loaded ~14 million barrels onto seven Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in the Persian Gulf (per TankerTrackers.com, cited by Reuters).

Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says

19 hours ago

JPMorgan reports Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels at 17.5 million barrels per day, despite ongoing shipping risks. Product flows remain lower at 58%, reflecting continued operational challenges amid geopolitical tensions.

bloomberg

2026-09-29

Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says

Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says

FAQ