Over 71 yuan per kilogram, beef prices hit a new high in more than two years.

According to Yicai News, the average beef price at national agricultural product wholesale markets has rebounded to a level not seen in over two years. Data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that on September 21, the average beef price at national agricultural product wholesale markets reached 71.59 yuan per kilogram—up nearly 6% since early August and nearly 9% year-on-year. For Week 38 (September 14–20), the weekly average wholesale price stood at 71.08 yuan per kilogram, rising 1.3% week-on-week and 8.4% year-on-year. As previously reported by CCTV Finance, traders noted that recent sharp price increases stem partly from surging demand and partly from declining cattle inventories and reduced supply. Beginning in the second half of 2023, continuous losses in beef cattle farming drove sustained capacity reduction nationwide. As a result, the national beef cattle herd shrank, with corresponding adjustments in herd size, slaughter volume, and output—altering supply-demand dynamics and pushing up beef prices. Data show that in the second week of September, the national beef cattle price reached 29.84 yuan per kilogram—up 1% week-on-week and 9.9% year-on-year.

The national average wholesale beef price rose to 71 yuan per kilogram, hitting a two-year high. What factors contributed to this increase?

Restoring production capacity requires first convincing farmers to resume breeding breeding cows—and then waiting two or three more years before meat becomes available. When prices rise, capacity remains mired at its trough: this is an inherent biological rhythm of cattle. With domestic capacity at its nadir, the shortfall could previously have been filled by imported beef—a strategy employed consistently over the past decade. According to an investigation by the Ministry of Commerce, China’s domestic beef self-sufficiency rate fell from 93% in 2015 to 73% in 2023. A safeguard measure application jointly submitted in November 2024 by the China Animal Husbandry Association and nine other industry associations calculated that imported beef’s share of the domestic market rose from 20.55% in 2019 to 30.90% in 2023. Low-priced, high-volume imported beef was one reason domestic farmers incurred losses during those three years—prompting authorities to gradually restrict this channel. On December 31, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 87, determining that increased imports had caused serious injury to China’s domestic industry and that a causal relationship existed between the two. Starting January 1, 2026, three-year safeguard measures will be implemented: import quotas are allocated country-by-country; once a country’s quota is exhausted, any excess volume will incur an additional 55% tariff on top of the prevailing duty rate, effective from the third day after the threshold is reached. Quotas will be gradually expanded annually, and unused portions will not carry over to the next year. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that these measures aim to help the domestic industry through a temporary difficult period—not to restrict normal beef trade. This “door” is closed country by country, timed to each nation’s quota exhaustion schedule. According to the WTO/FTA Consultation Network—administered by the Ministry of Commerce—in April this year, total beef imports in Q1 reached 869,000 tons, up 27.5% year-on-year, consuming 32.3% of the annual quota of 2.688 million tons. At that time, Australia had already used over half its quota and, on March 25, was notified by the Ministry of Commerce that it had triggered the additional tariff threshold—the first major supplier to do so. Brazil, accounting for nearly 60% of China’s beef imports, had used 46.3% of its quota. The real bottleneck emerged in the second half of the year. Industry tracking records indicate that Australia exhausted its full quota on June 18, while Brazil had used 80% of its quota by July 21. According to a Yicai News report in September, Australia had reached 100% of its quota and begun imposing the 55% additional tariff, while Brazil hit 90% on August 10. Together, these two countries account for at least 70% of China’s beef imports. The steepest price surge coincided precisely with August. In the first half of the year, continued growth in imports still cushioned the domestic capacity shortfall—but this buffer thinned significantly in the third quarter. As the cushion weakened, consumer demand strengthened. The fourth quarter is traditionally peak season for beef consumption: colder weather boosts demand for braised beef and hotpot. This year, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays also fell unusually close together. Shao Qiaoqiao, speaking to Yicai News, estimated that peak-season demand would lift overall consumption by approximately 5%. That extra 5% demand landed precisely when both domestic output and imports were contracting—delivering the final upward push to prices. Returning to the original question: among these three drivers, their relative weights differ significantly. Culling of breeding cows determined that domestic supply would inevitably fall short this year—a reality set in motion three years ago. The safeguard measures meant the shortfall could no longer be offset as easily as in previous years with cheap imported beef; their impact, however, only concentrated in the second half of the year, following the calendar of country-specific quota exhaustion. Seasonal demand merely provided the final nudge.

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