Value analysis of Jinhui Molybdenum Co., Ltd.

【Answer 1】 Today, we analyze the stock Jinhui Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 601958). Jinhui Molybdenum is a mining company I particularly favor. With a market capitalization of over RMB 30 billion, it ranks as a mid-sized player among Chinese mining firms. It mines minor metals—offering relatively high operational leverage—and has delivered rapid growth historically, backed by strong management capabilities. Notably, even during industry downturns, it has managed to hold its profits flat. Its mine reserve-to-production ratio is high, making it an exceptionally solid mining enterprise. In terms of cost-effectiveness, its valuation is broadly comparable to that of Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining—both also suitable for long-term holding. Jinhui Molybdenum possesses unique advantages: it has yet to significantly expand overseas mining operations, thus facing comparatively lower geopolitical risks; meanwhile, it is actively preparing for international expansion, suggesting no major concerns regarding future growth potential. Monitoring molybdenum prices alone suffices to gauge its cyclical performance—a remarkably straightforward approach. First, consider fundamentals: Jinhui Molybdenum’s earnings per share (EPS) last year exceeded RMB 0.90; this year’s EPS is expected to reach approximately RMB 1.00. With its current share price at RMB 9.90, its P/E ratio stands below 10x—similar to Luoyang Molybdenum’s valuation. However, while Luoyang Molybdenum focuses primarily on copper and cobalt, Jinhui Molybdenum remains China’s leading dedicated molybdenum miner. Revenue-wise, Jinhui Molybdenum pursues steady, measured capacity expansion—its annual revenue growth remains consistently stable. During peak industry cycles, it achieved triple-digit profit growth; in weaker years, it maintained flat profits—even as revenues continued rising. Thus, revenue growth serves as a reliable indicator of stability. Cash flow is also robust: Q1 this year was relatively weak—a normal seasonal pattern—so attention should shift to Q2 cash flow. Regarding dividends: a 4% dividend yield is modest for a mining firm—whose primary value driver lies in cyclical profitability rather than perpetual growth—but having a dividend is still preferable to none, and reflects underlying cash flow strength. We omit ‘effective P/E’ calculations, since mining firms’ earnings are inherently volatile (large swings between profit and loss), rendering such metrics largely meaningless. Instead, focus squarely on cyclical drivers. From a cyclical perspective: Jinhui Molybdenum posted triple-digit growth in prior years, driven mainly by surging molybdenum prices. Last year, falling molybdenum prices led to a slight profit decline; this year, however, prices appear poised for another upturn. The company enjoys clear cost advantages and exhibits high sensitivity (elasticity) to molybdenum price movements. While we don’t anticipate another round of triple-digit profit growth, even a ~50% increase would render its income statement highly attractive—and propel its share price upward significantly. To illustrate: if its valuation rises from ~10x to ~15x (comparable to Xiamen Tungsten), coupled with a ~50% profit increase, its share price could double within a year. Hence, the single most critical factor remains monitoring molybdenum price fluctuations. Recently, several minor metals—including platinum and antimony—have shown unusual volatility, likely influenced by soaring gold prices and a weakening U.S. dollar. Metals are literally ‘money,’ and mining companies are effectively ‘digging money.’ As the dollar’s dominance wanes, mining firms’ intrinsic value continues rising. From a technical/fund-flow perspective: Jinhui Molybdenum’s stock exhibits a long-term bullish moving-average alignment. Recently, its 5-quarter moving average may be nearing a crossover below its 10-quarter moving average—indicating strong gains in prior years, followed by consolidation over the past one to two years. This pattern aligns precisely with its recent earnings trajectory. Yet it also implies that once earnings recover, the stock can readily re-enter a bullish multi-quarter alignment. Institutional funds have remained dormant for one to two years, allowing most prior gains to be fully digested; the main players have likely nearly completed their patient accumulation phase, wearing down retail holders. Provided fundamentals cooperate, further upside faces minimal resistance. This differs somewhat from Luoyang Molybdenum, whose sharp rally last year necessitated subsequent position digestion. By contrast, Jinhui Molybdenum appears to have already completed its position digestion—though a sustained short-term uptrend hasn’t yet formed. Timing of the next institutional push remains uncertain—but sustained molybdenum price increases will inevitably lift its share price. Re-establishing a bullish quarterly moving-average configuration would likely deliver at least a 10%+ gain.

Steady growth in 2023, supported by copper prices driving improved performance for China Nonferrous Mining Corporation

【Answer 2】 China Nonferrous Mining Corporation released its 2023 financial results: the Company recorded revenue of USD 3.606 billion and attributable profit to owners of USD 278 million, representing a 4.2% year-on-year increase; basic earnings per share amounted to USD 0.0743. The Board proposed a final dividend for 2023 of USD 0.029702 per share. In 2023, amid volatile global geopolitical conditions and pronounced copper price fluctuations—characterized by highs at both year-ends and a trough mid-year—China Nonferrous Mining, as a company with core assets located overseas, faced numerous challenges. Nevertheless, it delivered an exceptionally ‘stable’ set of results. 01 Steady Improvement in Operational Metrics China Nonferrous Mining’s ‘stability’ manifests across three dimensions: First, stable profitability. In 2023, the Company achieved gross profit of USD 877 million, up 8.7% year-on-year; both operating profit and pre-tax profit posted positive growth. In 2023, the Company’s self-mined copper output totaled approximately 169,300 tonnes, accounting for 32.69% of its total integrated copper output—a 12.01% increase year-on-year. Gross margins from self-mined ore consistently exceeded those from purchased ore by over 20 percentage points, and expanded further year-on-year. China Nonferrous Mining’s profitability continued strengthening: gross margin rose 4.62 percentage points year-on-year to 24.33%; net margin increased 1.19 percentage points to 10.51%. In 2023, the Company’s average return on equity (ROE) reached 15.84%, sustaining a high level. Among Hong Kong-listed nonferrous metal companies with disclosed data, it ranked second—and is the only such company to have maintained an ROE above 10% for three consecutive years. In terms of earnings quality, China Nonferrous Mining’s 2023 performance remained outstanding: operating cash inflow totaled RMB 589 million, yielding a cash-to-net-income ratio (‘net cash ratio’) of 1.55. Second, stable asset management. Against a backdrop of heightened external uncertainty, China Nonferrous Mining further enhanced its asset quality. In 2023, the Company proactively reduced debt to strengthen risk management: total liabilities at year-end stood at USD 1.333 billion, down 20.61% year-on-year. While actively deleveraging, the Company’s total assets reached USD 3.82 billion at year-end 2023; its debt-to-asset ratio fell to 34.9%, marking a new low since listing. Even as its debt-to-asset ratio declined, the Company maintained healthy liquidity: current assets accounted for 55.71% of total assets in 2023—unchanged from last year and the strongest level in five years. Its long-term debt-to-working-capital ratio has declined steadily in recent years, reaching 0.2 at end-2023—the strongest level on record. Third, stable shareholder returns. In its annual results announcement, the Board proposed a final dividend of USD 0.029702 per share for 2023. Including this proposed final dividend, China Nonferrous Mining has distributed dividends nine times since listing, with cumulative payouts approaching RMB 4 billion. In 2023, the Company’s dividend payout ratio stood at 40%. From 2019 to 2022, its payout ratios were 42.86%, 40%, and 39.97%, respectively.

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Minerals Technologies Inc. increased its quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.13 per share, marking four consecutive years of hikes. The move signals confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholder value.

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