Financial Report Tracking Q3 2026–3: Some Are Doing Okay

Key point—did you consider this? How far along is the store renovation rollout? Such growth depends on how many stores remain unrenovated; linear extrapolation is inappropriate. Assessment: Retail stocks—let’s just skip them... 7. Source Photonics This is a third-quarter standalone earnings preview, not a cumulative figure for the first three quarters. Q3 standalone: Revenue of RMB 650 million to RMB 700 million, up 264.56%–292.60% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 403 million to RMB 453 million, up approximately 575.85%–659.70% year-on-year (the announcement appears to contain a typographical error—one digit is off); non-recurring net profit of RMB 400 million to RMB 450 million, up 678.44%–775.74% year-on-year (RMB 51.385 million in the same period last year). Compared with Q2’s RMB 428 million, Q3 revenue fluctuates between a 5% decline and a 5% increase—essentially flat. The cumulative first-three-quarters figure is estimated: H1 revenue of RMB 925 million plus Q3 revenue yields approx. RMB 1.575–1.625 billion. Reasons: The announcement cites growth in data center business revenue, sustained shipment growth and strong demand for CW products, stable high product gross margins, and a year-on-year decline in SG&A expenses as a share of revenue. This stock has been revisited—key takeaway: profit growth far outpaces revenue growth. Revenue rose ~2.6x–2.9x YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose ~5.8x–6.6x YoY—the gap reflects enhanced technical capability and rising net margin. Net margin stood at ~65.62% in H1 2026 and remained near that level in Q3. My assessment: First, the YoY growth of 579%–660% is built upon two consecutive low bases: Q3 2024 was only ~RMB 8.19 million (back-calculated from Q3 2025’s 627.62% YoY growth), Q3 2025 was RMB 59.63 million, and Q3 2026 jumped to ~RMB 400 million—i.e., the base increased fiftyfold over two years, naturally inflating YoY figures (the stock price has already risen tenfold, pricing in much of this upside). Second, Q3 was essentially flat versus Q2, indicating the main growth surge occurred in Q2, with Q3 representing a plateau—not further acceleration. Market interpretation attributes this sequential flattening to capacity ramp timing rather than demand peaking, since capacity was scheduled to begin gradual release only from end-2025 onward. However, the announcement does not disclose capacity utilization rates, so this remains uncertain. Key watchpoints: (1) Capacity ramp timing—the top variable. Expansion of high-end optical chips faces bottlenecks in MOCVD equipment and indium phosphide substrates: equipment delivery lead times stretch up to one year, and substrates rely heavily on overseas suppliers. The company’s 50G optical chip industrialization project completion date has been delayed from end-December 2025 to end-December 2026; another project—the Phase II R&D and production base for optoelectronic communication semiconductor chips and devices (construction period ~24 months)—will directly determine whether incremental output materializes next year. (2) Net margin: It rose from 33.44% in Q3 2025 to 65.62% in H1 2026—can such an elevated level be sustained? (3) Valuation: Current valuation already prices in several years of high growth—margin for error is extremely narrow. Also, its planned Hong Kong IPO may dilute equity. II. Cyclical Stocks—Generally Not Worth Tracking Many AI-related cyclical stocks no longer require tracking—see prior analyses from the past two days.

Interpretation of Northern Rare Earth’s Q3 2026 Earnings Preview

On October 13, 2026, Northern Rare Earth issued a preliminary earnings announcement for the first three quarters of 2026. According to the company’s preliminary estimates, its net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2026 amounted to RMB 3.62–3.68 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 134.95%–138.84%; non-recurring net profit totaled RMB 3.63–3.69 billion, up 166.64%–171.04% year-on-year. Despite consistently improving earnings, Northern Rare Earth’s stock price has declined steadily: In Q3 2026, the stock fell 26.53% cumulatively; in October, it rebounded modestly by 2.18%. This article analyzes Northern Rare Earth’s earnings performance against recent rare earth price trends and examines whether its current valuation is reasonable. I. Northern Rare Earth’s Quarterly Earnings Performance Quarterly earnings have bottomed in Q2 2024 and risen consecutively for five quarters. In 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 431 million (Q1), RMB 501 million (Q2), RMB 610 million (Q3), and RMB 710 million (Q4). In 2026, the growth slope steepened further: RMB 918 million (Q1), RMB 1.135 billion (Q2), and the current preview implies Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.567–1.627 billion—a year-on-year growth of ~157%–167% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 38%–43% versus Q2, with a midpoint of RMB 1.597 billion. Cumulatively for the first nine months, the RMB 3.62–3.68 billion profit range corresponds to YoY growth of 134.95%–138.84%. Moreover, quarterly YoY growth accelerated from 113.12% in Q1, to 126.78% in Q2, to ~160% in Q3—indicating accelerating, not decelerating, momentum. Thus, the current earnings recovery remains in an acceleration phase through Q3. The earnings composition is also noteworthy. Non-recurring net profit for the first nine months totaled RMB 3.63–3.69 billion, up 166.64%–171.04% YoY—roughly 32 percentage points higher than the YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders. This implies non-recurring items weighed on current-period profits, meaning nearly all growth stems from core operations—enhancing both cash conversion and sustainability relative to headline figures. II. Correlation Between Rare Earth Prices and Quarterly Earnings From the start of 2026 through now, the rare earth price index broadly followed three phases. Phase I: Rapid ascent from early January to late February—starting at 217 points, the index climbed steadily, then surged post-Lunar New Year amid tightening supply expectations and restocking demand, peaking at 307.5 points on February 27—an intra-phase peak gain of ~41.7%. Phase II: Pullback and repeated trough-testing from March to May. The index plunged sharply in March, hitting 252.1 points on March 19; rebounded to 284.9 points by late April but stalled due to weak demand follow-through; then slid again to 246.2 points by late May. Phase III: High-level consolidation since June—the index has traded sideways within a narrow band of 258–274 points. It closed at 263.6 points at end-September and held steady at that level during the first two weeks of October—up ~21.5% from the start of the year and down ~14.3% from the annual high.

Minerals Technologies Inc. to report Q3 2026 results on October 29

Oct 6, 2026

Minerals Technologies Inc. announced it will release its Q3 2026 financial results on October 29, 2026, accompanied by a conference call. The global specialty minerals company previously reported $2.1 billion in global sales for 2025.

scanx.trade

2026-05-13

Minerals Technologies VP Sells 6,000 Common Shares

2026-05-18

Minerals Technologies CEO Exercises Options and Sells 21,568 Shares

2026-05-19

Minerals Technologies Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend

2026-05-21

Minerals Technologies Director Receives Phantom Stock Units Grant

2026-05-28

AlphaQuest LLC Increases Stake in Minerals Technologies Inc.