Humanity has conquered cancer! The COVID-19 giant—once having lost $170 billion—surged 100% in a single day!

【Answer 1】 ❝ On August 19, 2026, before U.S. market open, the stock price of a pharmaceutical giant shot up vertically—Moderna surged over 100%, while Merck rose more than 9%. What ignited the market was news the medical community had awaited for over a century: their jointly developed personalized mRNA cancer vaccine achieved positive results in a Phase III clinical trial for melanoma. This is the world’s first mRNA-based cancer therapy to succeed in late-stage clinical trials. As Merck’s head of oncology put it: “Therapeutic cancer vaccines are the ‘Holy Grail’ of oncology—a pursuit spanning more than one hundred years.” 01 A 100% surge overnight: A fallen giant—having lost $170 billion—saved by a single anti-cancer injection First, meet the protagonist of this story—Moderna. You’ve likely heard its name: alongside Pfizer, it became one of the biggest winners of the pandemic era, riding the success of its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine. Yet over the past few years, it has been Wall Street’s most tragic “has-been.” As the pandemic receded and vaccine demand evaporated, Moderna’s market capitalization plummeted from a peak of nearly $200 billion down to $25.1 billion—a loss exceeding 80%. In August last year, it announced a 10% workforce reduction. Its financial report showed quarterly revenue of just $145 million—and a net loss of $782 million. Everyone asked the same question: What could this company possibly rely on to survive post-COVID? The answer came on August 19. Moderna and Merck jointly announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, in a Phase III clinical trial codenamed INTerpath-001, had met both its primary and key secondary endpoints. Upon the announcement, the stock doubled pre-market. Interestingly, Moderna’s share price had already quietly risen 113% year-to-date—investors had been betting on this very day. And this time, they won. A company that amassed wealth through a COVID-19 vaccine—and then tumbled from grace as the pandemic waned—has now pivoted into the battlefield against cancer, using the exact same mRNA technology. That’s the most striking part of this story: it didn’t switch tracks—it simply inserted the same key into an even larger door. 02 Why this “anti-cancer injection” works: One patient, one drug—feeding the tumor’s unique fingerprint to the immune system Let’s first dispel a misconception: This is nothing like the routine vaccines we receive. It does not *prevent* cancer; rather, it *treats* patients who have already undergone tumor resection—aiming to prevent recurrence. In plain terms, its mechanism unfolds in three steps: Step 1: Reading the fingerprint. Each melanoma patient’s tumor carries distinct genetic mutations—like individual fingerprints. During surgery, doctors remove a tissue sample along with the tumor and perform DNA sequencing. Using AI, they identify the patient-specific mutational “fingerprint” unique to that tumor. Step 2: Forging the key. Based on that fingerprint, a custom mRNA vaccine is manufactured—encoding up to 34 “neoantigens,” i.e., markers uniquely expressed by the patient’s cancer cells. This is true “one-patient, one-drug” precision medicine—no standardized formula exists. Step 3: Teaching the immune system to recognize faces. Once injected, the vaccine is translated in the body into protein sequences that train the patient’s T cells to recognize and attack residual cancer cells. Combined with Merck’s flagship immunotherapy drug Keytruda (pembrolizumab), this dual-pronged approach strangles recurrence at its inception.

The surging Moderna: A four-year-long battle for mRNA’s vindication

【Answer 2】 The problem lies in tumors’ uncanny ability to “play dead.” Even when neoantigens are exposed, immune cells often remain oblivious—because the tumor microenvironment actively suppresses immune responses. That’s why, although our bodies generate mutated cells daily, most people never develop cancer; those who do typically suffer a breakdown in this surveillance system. Intismeran’s design tackles this challenge in two steps: Step 1: Identifying the target. After surgical removal of the tumor, the patient’s tumor tissue undergoes genomic sequencing to identify up to 34 patient-specific mutations capable of activating the immune system. These mutations are encoded into a synthetic mRNA molecule. This step is fully personalized—taking approximately six weeks from biopsy to finished drug. Step 2: Releasing the brakes. Once injected, the mRNA is translated in vivo into neoantigen proteins, training T cells to recognize residual cancer cells; simultaneously, Keytruda (a PD-1 inhibitor) lifts the tumor’s immunosuppressive “brakes,” empowering activated T cells to act unimpeded. One component “draws the suspect’s portrait”; the other “removes the handcuffs.” Conceptually, this combination is near-perfect. Yet between concept and clinical reality lies a decades-long history of failure. Therapeutic cancer vaccines represent oncology’s century-old “Holy Grail.” Over the past two decades, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Novartis all stumbled in developing personalized tumor vaccines—for various reasons: insufficient accuracy in neoantigen prediction algorithms, inadequate strength of immune response, or lack of synergistic companion drugs when used alone. Provenge—the prostate cancer vaccine approved by the FDA in 2010—remains the only therapeutic cancer vaccine ever cleared by the agency; yet its commercial performance was dismal, with exorbitant personalized manufacturing costs turning it into a notorious cautionary tale across the industry. What enabled Moderna and Merck’s approach to succeed today isn’t a single breakthrough—but rather the simultaneous maturation of three critical enablers: plummeting sequencing costs, improved neoantigen prediction algorithms, and the ready availability of Keytruda as the ideal “brake-releasing” partner. So why start with melanoma? The answer is disarmingly simple: Melanoma ranks among the most mutationally burdened cancers. More mutations mean more candidate neoantigens to select from—and thus greater flexibility in vaccine design. Choosing the easiest battle first to prove technical feasibility is a classic, time-tested strategy in clinical development. 02 A decade-long pact: A marriage of mutual, yet divergent, ambitions In 2016, Merck and Moderna signed a collaboration agreement on personalized cancer vaccines. At the time, three years predated the pandemic; Moderna had not yet gone public, and mRNA remained a controversial, polarizing term within academia. Meanwhile, Merck had just ascended to dominance in the immuno-oncology arena thanks to Keytruda—its star shining brighter than ever. Looking back a decade later, this partnership reveals each party’s distinct motivations—and both sides bet correctly. For Moderna, this is fundamentally a story about survival. The pandemic accelerated the validation of Moderna’s mRNA platform—but also bequeathed a fatal structural vulnerability: over 90% of its revenue depended on a single product, whose market was visibly shrinking. From 2022 to 2025, Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine revenue collapsed—from $18.4 billion annually to less than $100 million per quarter. Transitioning into oncology has thus transcended strategic choice—it has become an existential imperative. Bancel’s statement following the trial results left no room for ambiguity: “We are now an oncology company”—and he projects the first sales growth in four years by Christmas 2026.

Moderna Lifts Annual Revenue Forecast on Strong COVID Vaccine Demand Overseas

21 hours ago

Moderna raised its full-year revenue forecast following a profitable third quarter driven by strong international COVID vaccine demand. The company also highlighted FDA clearance for its flu vaccine and promising results from a personalized cancer vaccine candidate.

reuters

2026-11-06

Moderna Lifts Annual Revenue Forecast on Strong COVID Vaccine Demand Overseas

Moderna Lifts Annual Revenue Forecast on Strong COVID Vaccine Demand Overseas

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