People always say, 'Don’t underestimate India,' just as we shouldn’t have underestimated China back then. Does India truly possess the capability to create the next miracle of a rising great power?

I. India’s Photovoltaic Sector: Why Was Its Early Development (2010–2018) So Slow? India launched its National Solar Mission (JNNSM) around 2010, yet cumulative installed capacity reached only 20 GW by 2018—averaging under 15% annual growth, far below recent levels. Key bottlenecks included: 1. Policy Instability, Weak Implementation, and Inadequate Support ・Early targets were vague; subsidies were intermittent; land acquisition, grid connection, and power purchase agreements (PPAs) dragged on for years. ・No systematic support for domestic manufacturing—emphasis was placed solely on ‘installed capacity,’ not on building a local industrial chain. ・Weak grid infrastructure, frequent land disputes, and cumbersome approvals caused widespread project delays and cancellations. 2. Near-Total Absence of a Domestic Industrial Chain—Heavy Reliance on Imports Polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules, and production equipment were all imported—primarily from China. ・Only scattered, small-scale module assembly plants existed domestically—lacking scale, technology, and cost competitiveness. ・Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) remained significantly higher than that of coal-fired power, rendering solar economically unviable without limited subsidies. 3. Disadvantages in Financing and Cost Structure ・High financing costs (above 10%), small project scale, and low operational efficiency. ・Module prices were over 30% higher than those in China, undermining market competitiveness. 4. Shortage of Technology and Talent ・No advanced cell or module technologies; equipment, processes, and skilled personnel all depended entirely on foreign sources. ・Domestic R&D investment was virtually zero—industry remained stuck at a low-value stage. II. Recent Explosive Growth (2019–2025): Three Core Drivers 1. Strong Government Policy Under Modi: Carrot and Stick Combined ・Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme (launched 2020): ₹450 billion in subsidies, mandating domestic manufacturing and capacity targets. ・High import tariffs: 40% on modules, 25% on cells—forcing localization. ・Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM): Only Indian-certified modules may bid for government tenders—effectively blocking low-cost imports. ・National targets: 300 GW solar and 500 GW non-fossil energy by 2030—driving aggressive tendering. Results: ・Module manufacturing capacity: rose from 8 GW in 2017 to 100–154 GW projected for 2025. ・Annual new installations: 18.3 GW in 2023; 30.7 GW in 2024 (third globally). 2. Surging Power Demand + Economic Viability Reversal ・Annual electricity demand growth: 6–8%; coal-based generation faces supply constraints and severe pollution. ・Plummeting PV costs (driven by Chinese supply chains) have pushed LCOE below that of coal power. ・Rooftop PV, agrivoltaics, and utility-scale projects are all expanding rapidly. 3. Comprehensive Input of Chinese Equipment and Technology (The Most Critical External Factor) India’s PV boom is highly dependent on China—from production equipment and materials to process know-how and full-line construction. (1) Core Production Equipment: 85–90% Supplied by China ・Cell production equipment: Mecachip (HJT turnkey lines), JieJiaWeichuang, Dir Laser, etc. ・Reliance Industries’ 4.8 GW HJT line: Entirely supplied by Mecachip, using Chinese process technology. ・Module equipment: Stringers, laminators, and wafer-cutting machines (e.g., Kangfenwei, JingShan Light Machinery). ・Auxiliary materials & consumables: Silver paste, sputtering targets, cutting fluids, glass—all heavily reliant on China. (2) Upstream Materials: Over 90% Imported from China ・Polysilicon: 95% imported (China dominates globally). ・Wafers: 95% imported. ・Cells: 85% imported. ・Inverters, trackers, junction boxes, etc.: Chinese firms (e.g., Sungrow, CITIC Bo) hold dominant market shares. ・Note: Sungrow operates a factory in Bengaluru with 3 GW annual inverter capacity—and has not yet been subject to punitive measures.

BBC NEWS | India’s green electricity generation capacity continues to grow—but large amounts of electricity are being 'wasted' (India is producing more green energy—but wasting a lot of it).

"It showed that renewable energy is no longer a marginal source sitting at the edge of the power system," Sumant Sinha, CEO of ReNew Power, one of India's largest Nasdaq-listed clean energy companies, told the BBC. "This indicates that renewable energy is no longer a peripheral, secondary source within the power system," said Sumant Sinha, CEO of ReNew Power—one of India’s largest clean energy companies listed on Nasdaq—in an interview with the BBC. To be sure, coal-based power plants still continue to generate 70% of India's electricity on average because they run on a higher load factor, or for more hours than solar or wind. Yet, the country's push for clean energy appears to have reached a crucial inflection point. Admittedly, coal-fired power plants still account for roughly 70% of India’s average electricity generation, owing to their higher load factor—that is, they operate for more hours per day than solar or wind facilities. Nevertheless, India’s drive toward clean energy seems to have reached a pivotal turning point. A decade ago India's installed renewable energy capacity was barely 4GW. It now makes up 300GW or 54% of its total 552GW installed capacity—a target that's been achieved five years ahead of schedule. Ten years ago, India’s installed renewable energy capacity stood at a mere 4 GW. Today, it totals 300 GW—representing 54% of the nation’s overall installed capacity of 552 GW—a milestone achieved five years ahead of schedule. For a nation long seen as the poster child for dirty coal dependence, this rapid transition points to a remarkable achievement in decarbonising its grid.

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