Why did Moody’s revise S-Oil’s credit outlook to stable, and what key factors drove this decision?

Moody’s revised S-Oil’s outlook to stable from negative due to stronger refining margins, continued access to crude oil supplies (especially via majority shareholder Saudi Aramco), and the imminent completion of the Shaheen complex in Ulsan — all of which are expected to improve cash flow generation and support debt reduction over the next two to three years. The agency specifically cited robust refining and lubricant margins sustained by Middle East and Russia refining disruptions, mitigated risks from South Korea’s domestic fuel price caps (thanks to high export profitability accounting for 52% of refining revenue), and resilience against Red Sea shipping disruptions through alternative feedstock sourcing, inventory buffers, and Korea’s crude swap system.

What is Moody’s forecast for S-Oil’s EBITDA in 2026 and 2027, and how does the Shaheen complex factor into this trajectory?

Moody’s forecasts S-Oil’s full-year 2026 EBITDA to surge nearly fourfold to ₩4.6 trillion from ₩1.3 trillion in 2025, moderating to around ₩3.0 trillion in 2027 as operating conditions normalize. The Shaheen complex — a $7-billion project set to begin commercial operations in January 2027 — is expected to start contributing to EBITDA in 2027, though its first-year profitability will be modest due to ramp-up costs and global petrochemical overcapacity. The complex includes a steam cracker (1.8 million tonnes/year ethylene capacity) and downstream units for LLDPE and HDPE production.

Moody’s Revises S-Oil Credit Rating Outlook to Stable

Aug 28, 2026

Moody’s upgraded S-Oil’s credit outlook to stable, citing strong refining margins and the upcoming completion of its $7-billion Shaheen petrochemical complex. The agency forecasts a nearly fourfold EBITDA surge in 2026 driven by robust operating conditions.

icis

2026-04-23

Moody’s Upgrades Thailand, PTT Outlook Amid Lower Tariffs, Political Volatility

2026-08-28

Moody’s Revises S-Oil Credit Rating Outlook to Stable

2026-09-13

Petronas, PTT units secure approval for new gas contract in Malaysia-Thailand joint area

Moody’s Revises S-Oil Credit Rating Outlook to Stable

FAQ