Why are oil traders avoiding long-term bets according to Morgan Stanley?

According to Morgan Stanley’s co-head of global oil trading, Brendan Ross, oil traders are avoiding long-term bets because the wars in Iran and Ukraine have clouded the outlook beyond the next few months, leading them to concentrate derivatives positions over shorter time horizons—specifically the front three to six months—and become more selective and 'clinical' about risks, shifting from broad derivatives exposure to specific instruments amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty.

What impact have the US-Iran war and Russia-Ukraine conflict had on oil market volatility and product prices?

The US-Iran war and Russia-Ukraine conflict have caused rapid shifts in geopolitical developments that have whipsawed oil markets, fueling volatility; Brent crude has swung between about $60 and $126 a barrel this year, while refined fuels—especially diesel—have seen even sharper moves, with US retail diesel hitting a record last week and fuel costs soaring across Europe due to tightening global supplies and physical-financial dislocation concentrated in product markets.

Morgan Stanley Says War-Weary Oil Traders Shun Long-Term Bets

Sep 8, 2026

Morgan Stanley reports that geopolitical conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have caused oil traders to avoid long-term positions, focusing instead on shorter time horizons amid volatile crude and fuel prices.

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Morgan Stanley Says War-Weary Oil Traders Shun Long-Term Bets

Morgan Stanley Says War-Weary Oil Traders Shun Long-Term Bets

FAQ