What is Morgan Stanley's revised Dated Brent oil price forecast for the third and fourth quarters of this year, and what key factors drove the downward revision?

Morgan Stanley revised its Dated Brent oil price forecast to an average of $75 per barrel for both the third and fourth quarters — a $15 cut for Q3 and a $5 cut for Q4 — citing faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, robust US oil supply, and persistently weak Chinese demand, which together heighten the risk of a global oil glut. The bank explicitly attributed the revision to the 'twin solvers' of high US exports and low Chinese imports remaining in place despite Hormuz flows resuming, noting that the market has 'come full circle – back to surplus' as attention shifts to 2027.

How has the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz impacted tanker traffic and global oil supply, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis?

According to Morgan Stanley, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded to 35 oil and gas tankers exiting the Persian Gulf on Thursday — the first time since February’s conflict began that the count returned to the pre-conflict typical range of 30–40 vessels — signaling a critical step toward normalizing global oil supply; the bank added that only a recovery to about 65% of pre-conflict flow levels (roughly 11–12 million barrels per day) is needed to balance the market in 2027.

Morgan Stanley Warns of Global Oil Glut, Cuts Outlook on Hormuz

Jun 29, 2026

Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts twice, predicting Dated Brent will average $75 per barrel in 2024 due to increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz. High US exports and weak Chinese demand drive a global glut expected by 2027.

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