Lula won re-election and was elected Brazil's new president—how should we interpret this result?

Xiao Hu brings international perspectives to Zhihu users. Brazil’s first electoral reversal in over 40 years: Lula re-elected president. On October 25 local time, Brazil held the second round of its presidential election. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party candidate and incumbent president, secured more votes than Flávio Bolsonaro—the Liberal Party candidate and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—and was elected Brazil’s new president, winning his fourth presidential term. According to data from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, in nearly 99% of counted ballots, Lula received 51.75% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.25%. Earlier, in early October’s first-round vote, Flávio Bolsonaro garnered approximately 47% of valid votes—placing first—while Lula trailed by about two percentage points, ranking second. Since Brazil restored democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has ever overturned the result in the second round. Thus, this election marks an unprecedented, dramatic reversal in Brazilian history. Lula and his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, raised their arms at the conclusion of their final campaign rally in São Paulo, Brazil. After the results were confirmed, Lula’s key ally Reginaldo Lopes said: “I can’t believe it. This is Brazil telling the world that the far right is fascism—it opposes Black people, the poor, the nation, and LGBTQ+ individuals… We will reassemble democratic forces across this country.” For Lula—who turns 81 on October 27—this victory serves as a spectacular capstone to his legendary political career. Emerging in the late 1970s as a trade union leader in the industrial suburbs of São Paulo, he entered politics from humble beginnings: a former factory worker born into a rural, impoverished family. After losing three presidential bids—in 1989, 1994, and 1998—he finally became Brazil’s first democratically elected working-class president in 2002. Upon completing the constitutionally permitted maximum two consecutive terms, he stepped down, only to return to power in the 2022 election by defeating Flávio’s father, then-incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair was later imprisoned for plotting a coup. On a major avenue in São Paulo, a massive rally of Lula supporters was underway when riot police arrived on the scene, shields and rubber bullets at the ready. “To be honest, the left lost the first round—but woke up for the second,” said Caio Max, a photographer from Franca, an inland city in São Paulo state. “No coup can take away what we’ve achieved today.” Inside a nightclub in downtown São Paulo, Lula supporters erupted in cheers upon hearing news of his projected victory. Lucas dos Santos, a biomedical scientist, said: “I’ve been optimistic since the first round that Lula would win—even when Flávio was ahead.”

Shocking markets! Lula staged an unexpected comeback in Brazil’s runoff election, setting a record with his fourth term.

Brazil’s incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, completed a stunning reversal in the presidential runoff, defeating opponent Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% to 49% of the vote and securing an unprecedented fourth term. This outcome breaks a historical record dating back to Brazil’s democratic restoration in 1989—no candidate had ever overcome a first-round deficit to win in the runoff. It also defies widespread expectations that the 80-year-old veteran’s political career was nearing its end. According to Brazil’s Electoral Court, these figures reflect 73% of ballots tallied as of 8:48 p.m. Sunday. Shortly thereafter, polling firm Datafolha projected Lula’s victory. Election Day itself was rife with surprises—including allegations of voter suppression and an emergency extension of voting hours. Ultimately, massive turnout among voters in Lula’s northeastern stronghold helped him clinch victory in the final stretch. Previously, right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—had led the first-round vote. Historically, since Brazil’s democratic restoration in 1989, no candidate trailing in the first round had ever reversed course in the runoff; thus, Lula’s prospects appeared extremely bleak. According to Bloomberg, Lula’s return signals policy continuity—but persistently high fiscal deficits, debt burdens, and interest rates remain unresolved core challenges. While he pledged fiscal consolidation, he offered no concrete roadmap; simultaneously, he explicitly stated he would not sacrifice social agendas to appease financial markets—a stance expected to sustain investor concerns over Brazil’s fiscal sustainability. Following the announcement of election results, the ETF tracking the Brazilian stock market plunged 13% in Japan. Markets had widely bet on Flávio Bolsonaro as more inclined toward fiscal discipline, whereas Lula’s governance has traditionally prioritized growth through consumption stimulus—not tackling Brazil’s deep-rooted fiscal crisis. Creomar de Souza, founder and CEO of Dharma Political Risk and Strategy and a Brazilian political analyst, remarked: “He may think he’s been handed a blank check—but he won re-election in an environment of institutional fragility.” The narrow victory: Election Day ‘surprises’ and market shock Lula’s win stands as a textbook political reversal. After the first round concluded on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro stood firmly in first place—his demeanor exuding confidence of imminent victory, given the unbroken historical precedent since 1989 that no first-round loser had ever prevailed in the runoff. Yet Lula launched an aggressive counteroffensive. He rolled out a flurry of measures directly addressing household financial strain: increasing benefits under the Bolsa Família (Family Grant) program; banning online gambling; launching a large-scale consumer debt refinancing scheme covering private banks; and even distributing weight-loss injections via the public health system. In the final 15 days before the runoff, he focused intensely on voters who had skipped the first round or remained undecided—and especially targeted Brazil’s densely populated Northeast region—whose deep-seated emotional loyalty to him ultimately served as the ballast that tipped the scales.

Morning Bid: Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil

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President Lula secured a fourth term in Brazil, reversing market expectations and causing stock reversals. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices hovered near $115 amidst geopolitical tensions ahead of US midterms.

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