How long has the Strait of Hormuz been effectively closed, and what is the current estimated oil flow through it compared to pre-war levels?

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for much of the time since February 28, reaching a six-month mark as of the article’s publication. While U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed over 8 million barrels per day (bpd) were leaving the Gulf, tracking data shows approximately 5 million bpd — a figure corroborated by Asia’s depressed crude imports in August — and both are far below pre-conflict volumes.

What is the current state of global oil markets, particularly regarding crude versus refined products, and what recent diplomatic or economic developments may be influencing the situation?

Brent crude oil prices are trading under $90 a barrel — above pre-war levels but well below feared triple-digit highs — despite the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz; however, refined product markets (especially European diesel margins) are under severe stress and expected to remain tight through next year. Diplomatic efforts have recently intensified, with Iran and Oman working to finalize an agreement on strait control and Qatar meeting Iranian officials in Tehran; meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s ‘economic D-Day’ imposed sanctions on Iranian entities and threatened secondary sanctions, potentially contributing to Iran’s renewed diplomacy.