What does the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index indicate about supply chain conditions in May, and how does it compare to recent history?

The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index edged down modestly to 1.77 in May from an unrevised 1.82 in April, but remains near levels seen in late 2022 — indicating that global supply chains 'remained under pressure' in May, largely due to the war in the Middle East. The index's persistence at elevated levels 'hark[s] back to similar conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic', which previously contributed to a massive surge in inflation that 'has not been fully contained'.

How is the conflict in the Middle East — particularly the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — affecting global supply chains and inflation, according to the New York Fed and other officials?

The U.S.-backed war with Iran and the resulting shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has 'sharply impeded the flow of oil and other goods critical to the global economy', directly disrupting supply chains and contributing to ongoing inflation pressures. New York Fed President John Williams cited these disruptions as a major concern, noting they 'hit us and most countries in the world very hard during the pandemic', while Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that failure to resume shipments through the Strait would 'intensify global economic strains, especially in Asia', worsening inflation and domestic economic conditions; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added that even if the Strait reopened immediately, 'it's going to be months before we actually rebuild that flow of oil'.

New York Fed Reports Elevated Global Supply Chain Pressure in May

Jun 4, 2026

New York Fed reports elevated global supply chain pressure in May due to Middle East conflicts disrupting oil flows, impacting factory inputs and inflation. The central bank plans to maintain interest rates while monitoring economic strains.

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New York Fed Reports Elevated Global Supply Chain Pressure in May

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