Templeton Teaches You Contrarian Investing

1. Never make investment decisions when emotionally charged; instead, capitalize on others’ judgment errors caused by recklessness. 2. As a hunter of cheap stocks, your potential returns are inversely proportional to the degree of pessimism already priced into the stock. 3. The best time to reflect on your investment methodology is when you are most successful—not when you’ve made the most mistakes. 4. Stock valuation benchmark: Divide the current share price by the estimated earnings per share (EPS) over the next five years. The stock’s trading price should not exceed five times this figure. 5. PEG ratio: PEG = P/E ratio ÷ estimated growth rate. The lower the PEG, the cheaper the company—but critically assess whether the projected growth rate is realistic. 6. Replace an existing holding only when you identify a new stock that is at least 50% better. 7. Templeton devised a strategy: approximately 11 days before the end of the lock-up period, short-sell technology stocks—and then wait for insiders to be permitted to sell their shares. He focused specifically on tech stocks whose prices had surged threefold above their initial public offering (IPO) price.

ASML, the lithography equipment giant, reported a major earnings miss: Q3 order bookings were only half of market expectations, and its stock fell over 16%. What factors contributed to this?

Here’s a caveat: the original press release for that earnings report has been withdrawn. I can only verify details based on summaries from Yicai and Glonass; please refer to them for precise information. There’s a hard fingerprint for identifying the year: the guidance for 2025 net sales of USD 30–35 billion appears exclusively in the 2024 earnings report; the full-year guidance for 2026 is USD 44–45 billion. I saw an identical paragraph—including the exact phrase 'expected 2025 net sales of USD 30–35 billion'—in a post dated '2026-10-14'. The mismatch between date and content strongly suggests an old post was dug up and reposted—indeed, I paused in confusion myself upon first seeing it, nearly mistaking it for this year’s data. Now, regarding orders: 'Bookings' refers to order intake—not revenue recognition. For an EUV machine, the timeline from order placement to delivery and acceptance typically spans over a year. Thus, 'orders booked this quarter' and 'revenue recognized this quarter' operate on fundamentally different time scales. Moreover, quarterly order figures are statistically fragile: just one or two large customers adjusting their production schedules can cause bookings to swing dramatically quarter-on-quarter. That’s precisely why ASML itself prefers investors focus on backlog and full-year guidance—not single-quarter booking numbers. The real blow to the stock in 2024 wasn’t driven by weak orders alone. Rather, it was the simultaneous announcement of three negative items: order bookings halved, downward revision of 2025 sales guidance, and downward revision of gross margin guidance—all released on the same day—that triggered the 16% plunge. Attributing the drop solely to order weakness is insufficient. What about 2026? On the night the earnings were released, ASML’s U.S.-listed ADR briefly plunged over 4% in after-hours trading, then recovered to ~3% (per BT Finance, 2026-10-14); during European trading on October 15, it fell roughly 6.4% (per 21st Century Business Herald, 2026-10-15). Yet that same day, the entire European semiconductor sector declined sharply: ASM International dropped nearly 10%, Infineon fell 8.6%—triggered by unexpectedly high U.S. September inflation and a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.266%, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks broadly. Notably, ASML’s ADR actually rose 0.45% that day, closing at USD 1,657.44; however, it declined 6.35% cumulatively over the subsequent five trading days (per iFinD, 2026-10-16). Therefore, the 2026 results and stock price movement must be assessed separately: the financial report itself was solid, while the share price decline reflected a broader market correction amid adverse macro conditions—not the kind of single-day cliff-drop seen in 2024. One additional note on China: In Q3 2026, mainland China accounted for 23% of ASML’s net systems sales—up from 14% in the prior quarter. The company expects its full-year share to settle around 20% (per Sina Finance, 2026-10-15). On the same day, CFO Roger Dassen publicly opposed a U.S. congressional proposal to restrict DUV tool exports to China. Note: the 23% figure refers specifically to net systems sales—not total revenue—so do not conflate the two. To wrap up, here’s a recommended sequence of analysis.

Argus cuts target to USD 65.00 for Stepan stock

Oct 20, 2026

Argus Research lowered its price target for Stepan Company to USD 65.00 ahead of the Q3 earnings release on October 28. Investors will monitor the report to assess operational execution against the revised target.

ad-hoc-news.de

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US Stepan to close New Jersey surfactants site; decommission other assets by mid-2026

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Stepan to shutter assets under $100M savings plan

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Stepan Company Launches Cost-Cutting Plan

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Stepan Company Stock: Steady in Volatile Materials Sector—What You Need to Watch