ASML’s Q2 Earnings Surpass Expectations Across the Board; Full-Year Guidance Raised Again; Intel Adopts Most Advanced Lithography Equipment | Caifubao Insight

ASML’s Q2 net sales reached €9.33 billion, exceeding analysts’ average forecast of €8.85 billion; net profit stood at €2.92 billion, also higher than the market expectation of €2.64 billion. Gross margin came in at 54%, likewise surpassing the expected range of 51%–53%. Buoyed by this strong performance, ASML significantly raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance from the prior range of €36–40 billion to a new range of €43–45 billion. Its gross margin guidance was also lifted from 51%–53% to 54%–56%. The company forecasts Q3 net sales of €11–12 billion—its midpoint far exceeding Bloomberg analysts’ consensus estimate of €10.27 billion—and projects gross margin for the quarter at 55%–57%. The company stated it plans to increase its low-NA EUV tool capacity by approximately 30% in 2027, building upon an estimated base of ~65 units in 2026, and is exploring a further 30% expansion in 2028. Meanwhile, ASML disclosed that Intel has officially deployed High-NA EUV systems for volume manufacturing of certain Ultra 3 (Cheetah Lake) processors at its Oregon facility. All Key Metrics Beat Expectations; Q3 Guidance Also Exceeds Consensus ASML’s Q2 results surpassed market expectations across multiple key metrics. Net sales of €9.33 billion were ~5.4% above estimates; service and field operations revenue reached €2.76 billion, exceeding the forecast of €2.49 billion. Gross margin of 54% exceeded expectations by two percentage points, while net profit of €2.92 billion was ~10.6% above estimates. For Q3, the company expects net sales of €11–12 billion—well above the market consensus of €10.27 billion—and gross margin in the range of 55%–57%. On the full-year outlook, ASML raised the upper end of its net sales guidance from €40 billion to €45 billion and lifted the lower bound from €36 billion to €43 billion—a substantial revision drawing broad industry attention. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated in the earnings release: “Based on our current business momentum, we are planning to increase our low-NA EUV capacity by ~30% in 2027 relative to an estimated base of ~65 units in 2026, and are exploring a further ~30% increase in 2028.” The company also announced its next Capital Markets Day will be held on June 10, 2027, where it will update its long-term outlook on market and technology developments. AI Infrastructure Investment Wave Is the Core Driver ASML had already upgraded its full-year guidance in Q1—the primary driver being customers’ continued expansion of AI chip production capacity. ASML’s EUV lithography systems are the only tools globally capable of performing the lithography processes required to manufacture the most advanced AI chips—underpinning their irreplaceable competitive advantage.

ASML: Lithography Tool Capacity Is Also Tight—How Far Is ASML from Raising Prices?

1) Revenue from Lithography Systems: EUV and ArFi systems constitute the two largest revenue contributors within ASML’s lithography portfolio, collectively accounting for over 60% of total revenue. EUV revenue this quarter was approximately €4.1 billion, while immersion DUV-ArFi revenue totaled around €3.3 billion. 2) Volume-Price Breakdown of Lithography Systems: ① Unit Shipments: ASML shipped 17 EUV systems this quarter—an increase of one unit sequentially—driven primarily by pull-in demand from TSMC and Korean customers. ArFi shipments totaled 40 units, up 17 units quarter-on-quarter, with notably increased procurement from customers in mainland China. ② Average Selling Price (ASP): EUV ASP is substantially higher than ArFi ASP. According to analysis by Dolphin Research, ASML’s EUV ASP this quarter was approximately €240 million per unit, while ArFi ASP stood at roughly €82 million per unit—maintaining a price ratio near 3:1. 4) Other ASML Metrics: a. Regional Revenue: Taiwan and South Korea were the largest regional contributors this quarter, generating €3.7 billion and €3.6 billion respectively—each representing about 30% of total revenue. Mainland China contributed approximately €2.7 billion, or 23% of total revenue—returning to the ~20% level previously cited by the company. b. Order Metrics: Starting this fiscal year, ASML has ceased disclosing order data. Dolphin Research’s Overall View: “No Shortage of Orders—Only a Shortage of Lithography Tools” ASML’s latest earnings report was “solid but unremarkable”: both top-line revenue and gross margin met the company’s prior guidance. This quarter’s growth was driven mainly by increased demand from Chinese customers and TSMC, as well as rising demand for ‘upgrade services.’ Compared to the reported figures, investors paid closer attention to forward guidance: ASML updated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to €44–45 billion (up from last quarter’s €43–45 billion), raising only the lower bound—not the upper bound—thus delivering no major ‘surprise.’ Given ASML’s prior disclosure of capacity outlooks for 2027 and 2028—projecting annual ~30% growth in both low-NA EUV and immersion DUV systems—the market broadly expects ASML’s full-year 2027 revenue growth to land between 35% and 40%. Amid the broader AI market correction, ASML’s stock decline has been relatively modest. Notably, downstream wafer foundries’ capital expenditures are clearly increasing—for example, Micron recently projected capex of over $50 billion for FY2027 (a >70% YoY increase). Following the AI-driven demand surge, ASML’s High-NA systems are poised to usher in a new ‘product upgrade cycle,’ providing sustained high growth visibility for the company. Beyond ASML’s earnings, the market is closely watching two other dimensions: customer capex trends and progress on new technologies: a) Downstream Capex: A Forward-Looking Indicator TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and other wafer foundries are ASML’s key customers; their capex outlooks serve as leading indicators for ASML’s future performance. Synthesizing core vendors’ capex plans and broader market forecasts, Dolphin Research estimates logic chipmakers’ 2027 capex growth could exceed 25%, while memory chipmakers’ capex growth may reach as high as 50%.

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