How should we view U.S. President Trump's year-end address on December 17, 2025? What were audience expectations?

To commemorate our nation’s founding in 1776, we will issue $1,776 to every soldier. Just think about it. The checks are already in the mail. Until about 30 minutes ago, nobody quite understood how this would happen. Thanks to tariffs, we’ve earned far more money than anyone anticipated—and this bill has helped us along the way. (This is indeed a nice gesture! However, the $2.6 billion in tariff revenue Trump refers to was actually appropriated by Congress earlier. Moreover, those Americans whose health insurance premiums surged due to Trump’s opposition to extending Affordable Care Act subsidies might prefer he fulfill a promise to extend those subsidies instead.) Trump: No one deserves this honor more than our military. I congratulate everyone. By the way, our military recruitment numbers are now at an all-time high. Last year, however, recruitment was among the worst in military history. In just one year, the change has been dramatic. (The Army met its recruitment goal in 2025—but it also met its goal in 2024. All service branches have been working for years to improve recruitment efforts.) Trump: Furthermore, I am doing something no bipartisan politician has ever done: standing up to special interest groups and dramatically lowering prescription drug prices. I’m negotiating directly with pharmaceutical companies—and foreign governments—that have been exploiting our country for decades, cutting drug prices by 400%, 500%, or even 600%. In other words, your drug prices will drop sharply—I used tariff threats to force foreign countries, who otherwise would never have agreed, to bear this massive dollar cost. They’re no longer extorting us, and this began just four days ago. Nothing like this has ever happened in U.S. history. Drug abuse has been rising—but now it will decline at an unprecedented pace. This is called the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) policy—no previous president had either the courage or the capacity to implement it. Unprecedented price reductions will roll out starting in January via the new website TrumpRx.gov. These steep cuts will significantly lower healthcare costs. (A 600% drop in drug prices? Will pharmaceutical companies pay you? Read more about Trump’s MFN policy and his eponymous website. Also noteworthy: Democrats passed legislation under Biden that, for the first time, authorized Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. That program continues under the Trump administration and is projected to save tens of billions of dollars for the U.S.) Trump: I’ll also challenge giant health insurers who’ve grown rich on billions of dollars—money that should have gone directly to benefit the people. That money belongs to the people—that is, to you—so you can buy your own health insurance, enjoy better benefits, and pay less. This will be better health insurance. The current Affordable Care Act was designed to enrich insurance companies. It delivers poor-quality healthcare at outrageously high costs. Now Democrats are demanding sharp premium hikes—this is entirely their fault. It’s not the Republicans’ fault—it’s the Democrats’ fault. (Interestingly, Trump no longer calls it ‘Obamacare,’ but rather the ‘Affordable Care Act.’)

Trump’s ‘Big Trouble’: $40 Trillion Debt, 6.5% Mortgage Rates, and $5 Diesel Prices

Meanwhile, gasoline prices have risen roughly 40% since the outbreak of the Iran War; 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to 6.65%; and consumer confidence hovers near historic lows. Investors and analysts warn that the White House’s increasingly anxious rhetoric about market intervention could further worsen market sentiment. Mounting debt: Fiscal pressure proves difficult to alleviate The U.S. federal government’s debt officially reached $40 trillion this week—the fastest borrowing pace outside the pandemic era—with fiscal revenues persistently lagging behind expanding expenditures. The fiscal deficit as a share of GDP for FY2025 narrowed only slightly from 6.4% in 2024 to 5.8%. Forecasts indicate Trump’s tax-cut plan will substantially widen the deficit over the coming years—even though the administration has already cut social safety-net programs such as Medicaid and food assistance for low-income populations, these measures fail to offset the shortfall created by tax cuts. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG US, noted: Our spending consistently exceeds our budget—and war further escalates expenditure needs. Bessent had pledged to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of Trump’s second term. On Thursday, he stated the deficit is 'very likely' to have peaked, emphasizing that economic growth and future tariff revenues will boost fiscal income—and that the U.S. may 'resolve its debt dilemma through growth.' However, Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that achieving meaningful deficit reduction would compel Trump to make difficult choices on politically sensitive issues—such as cutting Medicare and Social Security. Strain said: I hope Secretary Bessent is right—but several questions remain. Energy shock: War undermines promised price cuts The Iran War has directly shattered Trump’s campaign pledge to 'halve energy prices.' Since the war began, gasoline prices have surged roughly 40% to $4.11 per gallon; diesel—the core fuel powering America’s logistics economy—has risen similarly, reaching $5.58 per gallon. The average diesel price during Trump’s second term has already exceeded levels seen under Biden. Disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies is the primary cause. During the war, the Strait of Hormuz—through which some 20 million barrels of oil flow daily—was blocked, effectively canceling out gains from Trump’s push for domestic production increases. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. crude oil output this year will rise by only 200,000 barrels per day. Art Berman, a Houston-based energy consultant, bluntly stated that Trump’s war has 'squandered' America’s energy advantage—and criticized successive administrations for harboring an 'energy blind spot.' Inflationary pressures have consequently spread. In May, the U.S. annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 4.2%—a three-year high—before easing somewhat to 3.4% in July.

Gasoline Prices Under Trump Surpass Biden-Era Average

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Gasoline prices under President Trump surpassed the Biden-era average, reaching a national average of $4.286 per gallon amid Middle East conflict-driven supply disruptions. The U.S. government allocated $150 million to boost refinery production as diesel prices hit record highs.

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